Some Thoughts?: New Retail and PUA
组织行销的本质是什么？是倍增，是财务自由，是功成身退！
1. What is the Essence of Network Marketing?
The essence of network marketing is multiplication, financial freedom, and stepping back after success!
如果一个直销组织行销类企业，老人不能退休，基本上这个企业将不会再有生力军进来！因为人人看到自己的未来——老人们的际遇就是最好的现身说法——那就是没有未来！
If in a direct selling organization the veterans cannot retire, then essentially that company will not attract new blood! Because everyone sees their future—the plight of the veterans serves as the best example—that is, there is no future!
没有人可以做永动机，组织行销更不能这样来羞辱老人！
No one can be a perpetual motion machine, and network marketing should not humiliate the veterans like this!
有朋友说：你是一把很锋利的刀，只会被用来处理难题。他们把刀挥舞至锋芒尽失后，才说自己的手被割伤，怪罪那把刀过于危险，接着将其束之高阁。
A friend once said: “You are a very sharp knife, only used to tackle problems.” They wield the knife until its sharpness fades, only to blame the knife for being dangerous, then put it away.
新零售的业态往往给那些资本方操盘者一个误解：认为可以通过大数据、AI等智能化营销，进行精准画像，大面积接触C端消费者，从而把这种企业的营销机制，成本主要花在了网红、头部带货主播这样的逻辑上！
2. Misunderstandings in New Retail
The new retail format often gives capital operators a misunderstanding: that they can use big data and AI for precise targeting and widespread contact with C-end consumers, thus spending their marketing costs primarily on influencers and top selling hosts.
其实这是一种病态的分配方式！消费者表面获益了，其实是被欺骗了。李佳琦就是最近的典型案例！
In fact, this is a pathological way of distribution! Consumers seem to benefit on the surface, but are actually deceived. Li Jiaqi is a recent typical case!
同理作为网络行销类的直销、社交电商公司，一个极为不好的一个趋势就是，也把主要的利润拨付在终端大规模C端促销接触上，而忽略了有效的网络行销建设！
Similarly, in direct selling and social e-commerce companies, a very negative trend is allocating most profits to large-scale C-end promotions while neglecting effective network marketing development!
讲白了，网络行销的核心还在于组织，在于社交关系的结构洞！
To put it plainly, the core of network marketing lies in the organization itself and the structural holes in social relationships!
网络行销的演化有两个趋势：一个是深度链接，一个是泛度链接！
The evolution of network marketing has two trends: one is deep linkage, and the other is broad linkage!
泛度链接就是典型的推销化、业务化，根本无从杠杆市场！所以公司最终走向大面积增长与衰退的生死时速或者生死失速！
Broad linkage is typically sales-oriented and business-oriented, which fundamentally can’t leverage the market! Thus, the company ultimately faces rapid growth and decline or a near-fatal stall!
深度链接才是网络行销的真谛，其核心价值的体现！但深度组织的问题在于社交面狭小，最终也走向封闭狭隘洗脑、人丁稀落的终局！
Deep linkage is the true essence of network marketing and its core value! However, the issue with deep organization is its narrow social scope, which ultimately leads to a closed, narrow-minded brainwashing and dwindling personnel!
如何平衡，是个天问！
How to strike a balance is indeed a philosophical question!
一个网络行销公司根本的出发点，应该是提供价值投资而不是短线炒作！
3. Fundamental Starting Point of a Network Marketing Company
The fundamental starting point of a network marketing company should be to provide value investment rather than short-term speculation!
天要下雨，娘要嫁人，成年人的世界里，人教育不了人，很多时候，只有事，才能真正教育人。
When it rains, mothers must marry; in the adult world, people can’t educate each other—often only experiences can truly teach us.
新零售背景下大规模的泛浅化社交电商的崛起，后疫情背景下产生了简单粗暴的社群团长财购模式，这一切都是极度降维。
The rise of shallow social e-commerce under the new retail background, which led to a crude group-purchase model in the post-pandemic era, is a drastic downgrading.
这种降维以至于过往网络行销最牛逼的企业们无法对抗。就好比拼多多的消费降级市场，打得天猫京东们毫无还手之力！
This downgrading is such that even the strongest companies in past network marketing can’t compete. It’s like Pinduoduo attacking the downgraded consumer market, leaving Tmall and JD with no chance to fight back!
在所有老牌的网络行销/直销企业中，花了巨额代价探索出一条路的，目前看依然只有堪称王者的安利，把社交电商的基因终于玩到了90后、00后一代人当中！
Among all traditional network marketing/direct selling companies, only Amway, having spent huge costs to explore a path, has successfully integrated the genes of social e-commerce into the post-90s and post-00s generations!
目前来看，中国直销前四：无限极、安利、完美、某公司，相继都面临的网络老化、品牌群体免疫的问题。也因此，第一个杀出血路的，是安利。完美开始走向企业微信私域深耕，某公司推出生态2.0+R3社群。
Currently, the top four direct selling companies in China—Infinitus, Amway, Perfect, and a certain company—are facing issues of organizational aging and brand immunity. Therefore, the first to carve out a path is Amway. Perfect is beginning to delve into WeChat’s private domain, while a certain company launched Ecosystem 2.0 + R3 community.
新零售的极致降维，最近最火的当属良久了吧。和圈内几个大牛分析了其社群运作的经验值，其简单粗暴倒是真的成就了一批从安利出走的人！
4. Extreme Downgrading in New Retail
The extreme downgrading of new retail recently reached its peak with Lianjiu. After analyzing its community operations with several industry leaders, it’s true that its crude approach has indeed created a group of former Amway members!
一句话，消费降级到拼多多Level的社交电商，Lianjiu现实的成功是值得思考的！
In short, the success of Lianjiu’s social e-commerce, which has downgraded consumption to Pinduoduo levels, is worth reflecting on!
Lianjiu的挑战是什么？我兄弟兴致盎然地告诉我其赚钱速度，然而以我天朝特有的食物链生态，它依然难逃非法传销的巨大风险。
What is Lianjiu’s challenge? My brother excitedly told me about its speed of making money; however, within the unique ecosystem of our country, it still cannot escape the enormous risk of illegal pyramid schemes.
有命赚，真的有命花吗？是个问题。
Is there really a way to earn and spend your life? That’s the question.
顶级的掠食者，必然是Gov，尤其是地方财政缺Money的Gov。
The top predators are definitely the government, especially local governments that lack funds.
新零售的冲击挑战，网络行销的对垒之策，不应该是以己之短去学对手之长，这样会画虎不成反类犬。
5. Countermeasures Against New Retail Challenges
The countermeasures against the challenges of new retail in network marketing should not involve learning from competitors by focusing on one’s weaknesses; otherwise, it could lead to failure.
新零售与网络行销的共同价值是赚钱与逆袭。
The common value of new retail and network marketing is making money and achieving a comeback.
但是，陷阱也在这里，所以有效对应策依然应该是网络行销的核心价值——梦想与自由。
However, there are traps here, so effective countermeasures should still focus on the core values of network marketing—dreams and freedom.
不能随新零售的波，逐泛链接的流！
You shouldn’t ride the waves of new retail and follow broad linkages mindlessly!
对于传统直销类的网络行销而言，新零售业态下的降维方法论如：私域、引流、公域、一键转发与分享、自媒体矩阵与运营等DNA，如果在网络行销中有效合理化导入，必然会在新的时期以全新社交电商姿态展现！
For the traditional direct selling model of network marketing, if the methodologies of downgrading in the new retail paradigm—such as private domains, traffic generation, public domains, one-click forwarding and sharing, and media matrix operations—are integrated effectively, it will certainly present a new social e-commerce posture in the new era!
经过三五年的尝试，深感公司平台、产品品类、团队教育需要三位一体，才能重新占领消费者心智，缺一不可。
After three to five years of experimentation, I deeply feel that a company’s platform, product categories, and team education must be unified to retake consumer mindshare; none can be missing.
新零售的单品、爆品思维，在网络行销中一贯被弱化。
The single-product and explosive-product thinking of new retail has consistently been weakened in network marketing.
大而全的直销公司产品目录，成为了其不能颠覆式创新的最大阻力之一！
The extensive product catalogs of large direct selling companies have become one of the biggest obstacles to disruptive innovation!
Lianjiu的团购、极限低价定制化的拼多多品类思维，迎合的是天朝强大的消费降级痛点。
Lianjiu’s group buying and extremely low-priced customized Pinduoduo product thinking aligns with the strong pain points of consumption downgrading in our country.
这个策略，目前看来无论如何都无法被传统直销、网络行销企业借鉴。
It seems that this strategy cannot be replicated by traditional direct selling or network marketing companies whatsoever.
去前年视频号炒作热潮的时候，就有一个共识：别人的私域，就是你的公域。
6. The Consensus on Private and Public Domains
During the hype of video platforms a couple of years ago, there was a consensus: someone else’s private domain is your public domain.
新零售社交电商的价值导向是拿到钱走人，带着私域继续流浪。
The value orientation of social e-commerce in new retail is to take the money and leave, wandering with the private domain.
而传统直销的价值导向是拿着钱退休，将私域扩大到公域转换它。
Conversely, the value orientation of traditional direct selling is to retire with money and expand the private domain into the public domain.
环境变化倒逼直销企业学新零售，但如果放弃自己的终极价值会导致四不象。
Changes in the environment compel direct selling companies to learn new retail, but abandoning their ultimate values will lead to chaos.
摸石头上瘾，会是直销企业走向新零售社交电商化的最大陷阱。
Becoming addicted to a trial-and-error approach could become the biggest trap for direct selling companies as they shift toward social e-commerce in new retail.
强大的以色列是因为有信仰，一盘散沙骚搞的巴勒斯坦同样是因为有信仰。
The powerful Israel exists because of its faith, just as the fragmented Palestinian territories also stem from their belief.
从这个意义看，坚守原则与灵活性，还是以教义的名义把原则变成灵活性。
In this sense, maintaining principles and flexibility is about transforming principles into adaptability in the name of doctrine.
在同样古老的教义背后，其实是是否与时俱进的进化带来的差异。
Behind the same ancient doctrines lies the difference brought by progressiveness.
网络行销企业能否出埃及？可资借鉴。
Can network marketing companies break out of their constraints? There are lessons to be learned.
向前看是焦虑，向后看是抑郁，活在当下的口头禅的人，无一不是自欺欺人！
Looking forward can lead to anxiety, looking back can lead to depression—those who live in the moment often deceive themselves!
最近和朋友讨论到依附式创业，分别谈到平台，时机，周期三大概念，大多数人只考虑平台因素才第一层，所以低层次竞争！
7. Discussing Affiliate Entrepreneurship
Recently, I discussed affiliate entrepreneurship with friends, touching on three main concepts: platform, timing, and cycle. Most people only consider platform factors, leading to low-level competition!
能进入第二层次的少数派就已经赢了！但考虑不到第三层的人注定赢不长久！
Those who can enter the second level have already won! But those who fail to consider the third level are destined for short-lived success!
穿越周期，才是真正持续长久的赢家！所谓第二曲线，正是穿越周期的结果！
The real winners are those who can navigate cycles! The so-called second curve is the result of crossing cycles!
你，get到了吗？
Did you get that?
（1）选错平台是大多数人被割韭菜的基本错误！
(1) Choosing the wrong platform is the fundamental mistake that leads most people to be taken advantage of!
比如，总有一大类人喜欢选择风险极大的非法或争议性平台，如同某些美女总爱渣男！也是蠢到没救！
For example, there are always those who prefer risky or controversial platforms, much like how some women are drawn to toxic men! It’s just foolish!
（2）错误的时机做抉择，也是大多数人死得其所的底层原因！
(2) Choosing at the wrong time is also the underlying reason many people meet their demise!
不是宣统年的太监，就是二几年先烈，或者是四九年的土匪，总之就是错过国运！
Whether it’s eunuchs of the late Qing dynasty, martyrs of the 1920s, or bandits of 1949; in short, they all missed the chance of a lifetime!
（3）真正的高手穿越的都是周期！才有巴菲特讲的别人恐惧时他贪婪！
(3) True experts traverse cycles! This is how Buffett can say that he is greedy when others are fearful!
李嘉诚几进几出内地与英国，正道出了周期思维需要的老奸巨猾！
Li Ka-shing’s frequent entries and exits between the mainland and the UK highlight the cunning needed for cyclical thinking!
休息不是软弱的标志，是力量的标志。
Rest is not a sign of weakness; it is a sign of strength.
— Kevin Kelly
真正要经营好私域，一定要远离直传销观念的烂泥坑！
8. Managing the Private Domain
To truly manage the private domain well, one must avoid the quagmire of direct selling!
耶格当年那句“非凡的梦想”，时至今日依然有效。
Yeager’s phrase “extraordinary dreams” remains true today.
无论你是销售导向，还是消费导向。归根结底，直销的归宿是直“消”，是自用的消费导向。
Whether you are sales-oriented or consumer-oriented, the ultimate goal of direct selling is direct consumption, focusing on personal use.
惟其如此，才能自由。更确切地说，是自在。
Only then can one be free—more precisely, comfortable.
设若一老友所说：小人物梦碎一地，其实这就是一种“恶”。
As an old friend said: “The dreams of little people are shattered.” This is a kind of “evil.”
这种恶是大多数愿景美好的网络行销/直销企业种下的孽债！
This “evil” is the predatory debt sown by most well-meaning network marketing/direct selling companies!
新零售背景下的微商，其实只是用了新工具生态下进行大面积、巨量的拉新式接触。
9. WeChat Business in New Retail
In the context of new retail, micro-businesses merely employ new tools to conduct large-scale outreach for acquiring new customers.
其本质，和90年代大规模的传销浪潮没有区别。
Its essence is no different from the massive wave of pyramid schemes in the 1990s.
从这个意义上讲，直销是冰兵器时代，微商是进入粗放的火器时代。
From this perspective, direct selling belongs to the age of cold weapons, while micro-business signifies the entry into the era of rough firearms.
这让我想起了一个段子：蹲在公司格子间里面敲键盘的我们，
This reminds me of a joke: “Us, typing away in office cubicles,”
跟当年在工厂里踩缝纫机的父母，本质上有区别吗？
Is there really a difference from our parents laboring at sewing machines in factories?
在各种手机APP里面抢优惠券、领红包，
Whether we are snatching coupons or collecting red envelopes on various smartphone apps,
跟当年菜市场讨价还价的父母有区别吗？
Is there any difference from our parents bargaining in wet markets?
每天短视频，打游戏的我们，
Every day, we watch short videos and play games,
跟当年蹲墙根嗑瓜子的父母有区别吗？
Is there any difference from our parents shelling sunflower seeds on the sidewalk?
看起来好像不同，其实本质上没有任何差别。
It may appear different, but fundamentally, there is no difference.
直销圈子里有一种我执，叫改变他人的观念。
Within the direct selling circles, there is a kind of egoism that centers around changing the views of others.
事实上，当你与整个社会的主流意识与观念对抗时，你不过是一个勇气可嘉的堂吉诃德！
In fact, when you oppose the mainstream consciousness and ideas of society, you are simply a commendable Don Quixote!
相反，聪明的新生代族群，他们到了火器时代，完全没有堂吉诃德这所谓骑士精神的负担。
On the contrary, the savvy new generation, as they enter the firearm era, carry none of the burdens of what is dubbed the knightly spirit of Don Quixote.
这也是为什么微商模式，即没有传统代理的区域保护，也没有直销模式的伦理保护。
This is why the micro-business model has neither the territorial protection of traditional agencies nor the ethical protections of direct selling.
某种意义上讲，前几年的微商甚嚣尘上的混乱，可以称为网络行销的大航海时代！
In a sense, the chaos of micro-businesses in recent years can be called the Age of Discovery for network marketing!
微商时代的在混乱中渐衰结束，新的流量洼地在直播与短视频生态中产生！
The era of micro-businesses ended in chaos, and new traffic niches emerged within live streaming and short video ecosystems!
于是，产生了李佳琦、薇娅一批专业的KOL，当然也产生了全民网络大乞讨的所谓网红直播打赏……
Thus, professional KOLs like Li Jiaqi and Viya emerged, as did the phenomenon of internet celebrities soliciting donations via live streams…
于是乎，产品追求爆款，视频追求爆流，人人真当网红。
As a result, products chase viral hits and videos seek explosive traffic, making everyone truly aspire to be an internet celebrity.
2023年，注定是个枢纽。
10. 2023: A Pivotal Year
The year 2023 is destined to be a turning point.
时光之轮。暗帝、玉座、真龙、两仪师、护法……
The wheel of time. The Dark Emperor, the Jade Seat, the True Dragon, the Two Instruments Master, the Guardians…
最近的感觉很混乱，一边是各行各业的老板在哀嚎，一边是明显感觉街上的车流、人流、很拥堵；
Lately, there is a chaotic feeling—on one side, business owners from various industries are lamenting, while on the other, there is evident congestion on the streets and in pedestrian traffic;
一边是感觉欣欣向荣，一切向好，一边是实际营业额没有明显提升！
On one hand, things feel prosperous and moving in the right direction; on the other, actual revenues show no significant increase!
问：只是我一个人有这种混乱的感觉吗？您们是什么感觉和实际的感受？
Question: Am I the only one feeling this confusion? What are your feelings and actual experiences?
直销，微商，大多数做的都是（直接）销售；
Direct selling and micro-businesses mostly engage in (direct) sales;
唯自我开始，20年前建立的直“消”理念，就一直倡导的是自用型团队的社群拓展！
Only the direct consumption idea established 20 years ago emphasizes community expansion centered on personal use!
而这，是新零售业绩下网络行销的必然趋势！
And this is an inevitable trend for network marketing under new retail performance!
在未来社会，每个人都可能在15分钟内出名。
11. Fame in the Future Society
In the future society, everyone could become famous within 15 minutes.
——安迪·沃霍尔
— Andy Warhol
当一束光照进黑暗，那这束光也是有罪的。
When a beam of light shines into darkness, that light is also culpable.
但如果这束光愿意承担罪名，它将是救世主！
But if that light is willing to bear the blame, it will become the savior!
等我熬过这一段狼狈，一个人尝尽孤独的滋味，我会笑着和这个世界和解……
Once I endure this embarrassing phase, experiencing loneliness alone, I will smile and reconcile with this world…
我们想创造一个世界，但最终这个世界崩溃了。
We want to create a world, but ultimately, that world collapses.
——《铁西区》导演王兵
— Wang Bing, director of “Iron West District”
生活告诉我们，亲近的人不是相互凝望，而是朝同一个方向看去。
Life teaches us that those who are close to each other do not gaze at one another, but look in the same direction.
— Antoine de Saint-Exupéry
除了思想，几乎没有什么可以证明一个人与别人有什么不同。有了思想，则无需证明。
Besides thought, there is hardly anything that can prove a person different from others. With thought, no proof is needed.
都说选择大于努力，大多数人的选择，既没有经验值也没有方法论。
12. Choices vs. Effort
They say that choices outweigh effort; most people’s choices lack both experience and methodology.
所以，显得愚蠢而盲目，偶有所得，也只是长得更加青嫩绿油，韭气葱葱。
Thus, they appear foolish and blind; any gains are merely superficial, like tender and green leeks.
中产、伪中产三年多以来的急速滑落，正在高温高压下急剧的演化为最大的富矿。
The rapid decline of the middle and pseudo-middle class over the past three years is swiftly evolving under high pressure into a rich vein of opportunity.
未来三年，这批矿藏的开采与开采方式将决定财富的重新分配。
In the next three years, the extraction and methods of tapping this resource will determine the redistribution of wealth.
外卖、直播、网约车，是后疫情时代最大的就业蓄水池，正在快速饱合。
Food delivery, live streaming, and ride-hailing are the largest employment reserves of the post-pandemic era and are quickly reaching saturation.
作为传统的就业蓄水池功能的网络行销行业，有确切消息提到市场监管总局正在约谈中国的几大外资龙头，
As the traditional employment reservoir, there are confirmed reports that the State Administration for Market Regulation is in talks with several leading foreign companies in China,
商议重新开多层次直销（其实就是公开承认传销）的问题，表明肉食者迫于就业形势要兑现WTO承诺了。
discussing the possibility of reopening multilevel marketing (which essentially means openly acknowledging pyramid schemes), indicating that the predators are compelled by employment pressures to fulfill their WTO commitments.
多层次直销的开放，将重新快速塑造一次九十年代的网络行销食物链。
The reopening of multilevel marketing will rapidly reshape the network marketing food chain reminiscent of the 1990s.
镰刀飞舞，又必将重新成就一批的新富阶层。
As the sickle swings, it will undoubtedly create a new wealthy class.
而这批可能从来没富过的韭菜，又将成为肉食者谋。
This group, which may have never been wealthy, will again fall prey to the predators.
老有人问我中美关系，对于网络行销业的影响。
13. Sino-U.S. Relations and Network Marketing
People often ask me about the impact of Sino-U.S. relations on the network marketing industry.
作为瓶瓶罐罐的产业，你只要看一切责任尽在美方的其他敌对国可口可乐与KFC开封菜，
In the bottle and jar industry, you can analyze the situation through other adversarial entities like Coca-Cola and KFC.
联合利华与宝洁是否受影响，基本就可以判定了。
If Unilever and Procter & Gamble are influenced, you can essentially make a judgment.
大国博弈，基本轮不到博弈民生消费领域。
In the power struggle between great nations, livelihood and consumer sectors are generally exempt from being battlegrounds.
就算战争期间，也是如此。
This holds true even during times of war.
喜欢做兼职的人，基本都是一种病，一种瘾。
14. The Part-Time Addiction
Those who enjoy part-time jobs are essentially afflicted by a condition, an addiction.
你不让他做这个，他也会做那个；他不喜欢做这个，也会去做另一个。
If you don’t let them do this, they’ll do that; if they don’t like this, they’ll go do something else.
所以，如何让他呆在一个好地方好好做，是一个商业模式核心竞争力。
Thus, how to keep them in a good place doing well is a core competitive edge of a business model.
要解决他们的痛点，才能让他们留下，而不是制造痛点给他们！
To make them stay, you must solve their pain points rather than create new ones!
他们不会恨你，但一定让你瞬间臭名远扬！
They won’t hate you, but it will certainly lead to your immediate infamy!
大多数的网络行销企业，都喜欢靠诱惑，诱拐这群喜欢兼职的人蜂涌而至，
Most network marketing companies like to attract this crowd of part-timers through temptation,
却往往没有本事将他们很好的留下来。
but often lack the capability to keep them around.
所以，总是一个始乱终弃的场景频频上演，类似于汪峰老师的情感故事。
Thus, a cycle of starting strong only to abandon them later frequently plays out, reminiscent of the emotional tales of Wang Feng.
好的企业与合作者，是情感物质的双修，而不是先洗脑，后PUA，最后兔死狗烹。
A good enterprise and collaborator cultivate both emotional and material aspects, not starting with brainwashing, then PUA, ultimately leading to betrayal.
良x，会死于非法传销和税务问题。
15. The Dangers of the Micro Business
The micro-business will die due to illegal pyramid schemes and tax issues.
因为足够降维，他们没有伦理保护的机制做大必须后边要升维上去。
Having downgraded sufficiently, they lack the ethical protective mechanisms necessary for growth, which requires a subsequent upgrade.
但要升维上去的代价无异于渡劫。
However, the price of upgrading is akin to undergoing tribulations.
最完美的奴隶制，就是让奴隶们以为自己是主人。
The most perfect form of slavery occurs when slaves believe they are masters.
最完美的监狱，就是让囚犯们不知道自己身在监狱。
The most perfect prison is one in which prisoners do not realize they are imprisoned.
要让他们热爱自己的锁链，并使他们认为，如果失去了锁链他们将一无所有！
You must make them love their chains, convincing them that without their chains, they will have nothing!
——阿道司·赫胥黎 《美丽新世界》
— Aldous Huxley, “Brave New World”
奴隶制的最高境界，就是PUA！
The highest form of slavery is PUA!
而基本上，所有美好愿望出发的企业愿景，都有类似的特点！
Essentially, all corporate visions spurred by good intentions share similar traits!
所以，不用天天去看政治场景，看那些有着宏大愿景，但初心已变的企业就好！
So, there’s no need to focus daily on the political scene; just observe those companies with grand visions that have lost their original intentions!
它们基本上走上了相似的诅咒！
They all have essentially fallen under similar curses!
一切正常可持续发展的组织，最需要的是权力的平衡与制衡，
All organizations aiming for normal, sustainable development most need a balance and checks on power,
利益的多方面博弈，而不是个人意志！
and multiparty negotiations of interests, rather than the will of individuals!
没有人是伟大的永不犯错的乌托邦缔造者！
No one is a great utopian creator who never makes mistakes!
无论他是政治家，还是企业家！
This applies to both politicians and entrepreneurs!
制度永远大于人性，当平衡被打破，制度被吞噬，人性的恶就会释放！
Systems will always outweigh human nature; when balance is broken and systems are devoured, the evils of human nature will be unleashed!
当你有了观点的时候，你就有了敌人；
16. Opinions and Enemies
Once you have an opinion, you gain enemies;
你懂得越多，懂你的人必将越少。
The more you know, the fewer people will understand you.
不要和你价值观相养甚远的人辦论，他永远不可能理解你。
Do not argue with those who are far removed from your values; they will never understand you.
举目四望，个个都像极了冬虫夏草，上半身是非菜，下半身是蛆虫。
Looking around, everyone resembles winter worms and summer grass, half resembling greens and half worms.
一鲸落，万物生！
When a whale falls, all things thrive!
奥斯曼土耳其的崩盘和大英帝国的衰落，带来的是今天中东百年恩怨、扑朔迷离的局势。
The collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the decline of the British Empire have resulted in today’s complex and ambiguous situation of centuries-old grievances in the Middle East.
未来三年，谁又知道什么情况！
Who knows what the situation will be in the next three years!
心不死则道不生。德不孤，必有邻。
As long as the heart does not die, the path will not cease. Virtue does not stand alone; it will surely have neighbors.
转：有一天，我看《西部世界3》，想出一句话：
17. Reflections from Westworld
One day, while watching “Westworld 3,” I thought of a saying:
所谓自我，是“你自己的选择”超越出可被系统预测的那部分。
The so-called self is the part of “your choices” that surpasses what the system can predict.
这才是日拱一卒的本义。
This is the true meaning of incrementally advancing.
那些妄想通过假扮名媛来吸引富人注意，以达到嫁入豪门人生目标的姑娘们，
Those who fantasize about attracting wealthy individuals through impersonating socialites in hopes of marrying into wealth,
大概率吸引来的，也是同样通过“拼单”打造的假富豪。
are very likely to draw in the same faux aristocrats created through shared purchases.
——这也是为什么人脉收集者的各种集会，往往来的都是一群同样目的的人！
— This is why gatherings of network collectors often attract groups of people with the same intentions!
几乎每一个城市，都有一批这样的人，这样的集会！诸如“旗袍会”之类……
In almost every city, there exists a group of such people and gatherings, such as “cheongsam societies,” etc.
倍增，是网络行销的本质属性。
18. Multiplication as the Essence of Network Marketing
Multiplication is the essential attribute of network marketing.
换言之，裂变是社交电商的本质属性。
In other words, fission is the essential attribute of social e-commerce.
一件事物没有了本质，就啥也不是！
If something loses its essence, it is nothing!
愚蠢不是天生的。愚蠢是教育出来的。
Stupidity is not innate; it is cultivated through education.
愿意放弃自由来换取保障的人，其最终既得不到自由，也得不到保障。
19. Freedom vs. Security
Those willing to give up freedom for security will ultimately end up without freedom or security.
——哈耶克
— Friedrich Hayek
所谓自由与保障之间，最重要的是契约！
The most important factor in the trade-off between freedom and security is a contract!
没有平等契约精神的单方面忠诚，是愚忠！
One-sided loyalty without the spirit of an equal contract is foolish loyalty!
所有的忠诚，都是基于长短利益衡量的自我PUA过程！
All loyalty is a self-PUA process based on measuring short-term and long-term benefits!
所以，最好的方式是忠于自己。
So, the best way is to be loyal to yourself.
当前端社交电商基因足够，各种直播、自媒体、在线小商店、微博、朋友圈、独立博客……通通都能成为流量入口。
20. The Flow of Social E-commerce
When the genes of front-end social e-commerce are sufficient, various forms of live streaming, self-media, online small stores, Weibo, Moments, and independent blogs can all become traffic entry points.
一旦这个流量入口能集结留存于一个订阅制的平台，持续变现就此发生。
Once this traffic can congregate and remain on a subscription-based platform, continuous monetization will occur.
❶ IP打造，❷私域激活，❸公域引流，❹社群运营，❺组织裂变，❻平台变现，❼持续订阅……
❶ Building IP, ❷ Activating private domains, ❸ Generating public domain traffic, ❹ Community operations, ❺ Organizational fission, ❻ Platform monetization, ❼ Continuous subscriptions…
这是基本的社交电商语境与逻辑。
This forms the basic context and logic of social e-commerce.
如果反过来，变成①想赚大钱，②去加入了一家直销公司，③要宣传赚大钱，④就必须去倍增，
If it turns backwards and becomes: ① wanting to make a lot of money, ② joining a direct selling company, ③ promoting wealth, ④ needing to multiply,
⑤和一群人天天开会洗脑，⑥把身边人的发展一圈，⑦最后自己臭名远扬……
⑤ meeting every day to brainwash a group, ⑥ developing those around you in circles, ⑦ ultimately leading to your own notoriety…
你更喜欢哪一个？什么是进化？这就是。
Which do you prefer? What is evolution? This is it.
别跟我逼逼我十年前推给你的语境与话术还有用 ！
Don’t tell me the context and rhetoric I shared with you ten years ago still works!
什么云时代的商业模式、影响力商法、轻创业、慢生活……
What cloud-era business models, influence marketing schemes, light entrepreneurship, or slow living…
看看天问老师多少年不用了！
Just look at how long Teacher Tianwen has gone without using them!
还有傻逼在讲消费致富、消费商、环保超市、成功七步……
And there are still fools talking about wealth through consumption, consumable commerce, eco-friendly supermarkets, and the seven steps to success…
你失去安全感的根本原因是什么？焦虑的本质是什么？是你失去了对你的事业的掌控感。
21. The Cause of Insecurity
What is the fundamental reason for your lack of security? What is the essence of anxiety? It is the loss of control over your career.
为什么会这样？因为你没有IP。
Why is this happening? Because you lack IP.
你的命运掌握在平台手里。而IP的本质是什么？就是跨平台变现能力。
Your fate is in the hands of the platform. And what is the essence of IP? It is the ability to monetize across platforms.
每一次平台对你的羞辱，都是你不思进取的结果。
Every humiliation from the platform is a result of your failure to strive for progress.
某久团购，极致降维带来极致速度，极致速度带来极致疯狂，极致疯狂带来极致风险！
Lianjiu Group Buying, through extreme downgrading, brings extreme speed, which results in extreme madness and extreme risk!
大约杀猪不远了！
The slaughtering of pigs is probably not far away!
通过现金上交差价规避纳税义务！
By evading the obligation to pay taxes through cash exchange of price differences!
“经营”所得，变成非法所得！
“Operational” income becomes illegal income!
看上去高明的“传销”规避，实则是生死一线的达摩克里斯之剑。
What appears to be clever pyramid scheme evasion is, in reality, a sword of Damocles on the line of life and death.
一个制度带来的生态，你要看吸引来的是什么人？走的是什么人？
22. The Ecology of Systems
When it comes to the ecology driven by a system, you must observe what kinds of people it attracts and what kind leaves.
如果越来越多优秀而努力的人离开，而吸引来一群无节操的镰刀或者精致己的卷王，
If more and more capable and hardworking people are leaving while a group of unscrupulous users or meticulously exploitative individuals are attracted,
那么是不是应该反省一下制度本身的逻辑上出了严重问题？！
then isn’t it time to reflect on whether there are serious problems with the logic of the system itself?!
制度，是生态的底层之本。
The system is the foundation of ecology.
社交电商的基本逻辑，裂变是本质！
The basic logic of social e-commerce is that fission is its essence!
但这个本质的前提是你需要定位准确并经营好你的IP，
But this essence relies on your ability to position accurately and manage your IP well,
公域可以自然慢慢导入私域，而激活它则需要你有高维的智慧去影响粉丝追随你的输出、抉择、选择。
Public domains can slowly and naturally lead into private ones, but activating it requires high-level wisdom to influence followers in their choices and decisions.
那些拼命拉群、采集大规模名单、无脑群发，以极低的降维的方式去运作的生态，
Those who desperately create groups, gather large lists, and mass send messages in a low-dimensional manner,
其本质就是消费降级带来的割韭菜！
are essentially the result of consumption downgrading that leads to the harvesting of leeks!
——你们知道我说的什么模式！
— You know what model I am referring to!
亚马逊CEO贝索斯曾说：
Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos once said:
如果把你做每件事的眼光放到三年以内，和你同台竞技的人会很多；
If you focus on everything within a three-year horizon, many will be competing with you;
但如果你把眼光放到未来七年，那么能和你竞争的就会很少，因为很少有人愿意做如此长远的打算。
But if you extend your vision to seven years into the future, few will compete, as few are willing to plan so far ahead.
So，让他们卷去吧，我为未来而躺平！
So, let them struggle; I will lie flat for the future!
卷心菜：
Cabbage:
被迫参与内卷，但因为心里不想卷，导致看起来很菜的人。
Forced to participate in the competition, yet appearing inexperienced due to not wanting to engage in it.
人生最重要的是选择，三大核心价值观：1、做难而正确的事（我在做）；
23. The Importance of Choices
The most important thing in life is choice, centered on three core values: 1. Do the hard yet right thing (I’m doing it);
2、做注定要做的事，擅长的事（我在做）；
- Do what one is destined to do and excel at (I’m doing it);
3、热爱（我在做）！
- Have passion (I’m doing it)!
战略不是怎么说，战略就是行动（我在做）。
Strategy is not merely about what is said; strategy is action (I’m doing it).
— Jensen Huang
我的自我感觉不差，体重没有减轻，对未来我充满希望。
I feel good about myself, I haven’t lost weight, yet I am filled with hope for the future.
天气好极了。钱几乎没有。
The weather is great. There’s hardly any money.
——契科夫
— Anton Chekhov
在消费者洞察领域，做的最差劲的一类企业，
24. Poor Performance in Consumer Insights
In the realm of consumer insights, the worst-performing companies,
除了大量传统国企类的刻板印象外，恐怕剩下的非各种直销企业莫属了！
save for numerous stereotypical traditional state-owned enterprises, are likely various direct selling companies!
原因何在？我想一个最基本的共同点就是都有极强的PUA消费者（客户与经销商）的基因！
Why is this? I believe there is a fundamental commonality: a strong genetic trait of PUAing consumers (clients and distributors)!
直销企业最大的悖论之一就是：一边要用希望去忽悠经销商可以功成身退，财务自由；
One of the biggest paradoxes of direct selling companies is that they want to use hope to fool distributors into thoughts of retirement and financial freedom;
一边必须PUA经销商永不退休，终身为之努力奋斗。
On the other hand, they must PUA distributors into never retiring and striving for life.
看一个人牛不牛逼，看他的学生牛不牛逼就知道了。
25. Evaluating Through Students
To gauge someone’s true caliber, you can tell by the success of their students.
如果他的学生一副脑残一样，各种感恩戴德！
If their students act foolishly, full of gratitude,
基本这个老师的水平也就那样了。
then that teacher’s level is likely mediocre.
记得陈丹青曾经讲过一句话，大约意思是：
I remember Chen Danqing once said something to the effect of:
如果你们是我的学生/粉丝，
“If you are my students or fans,
你们来找我拍照，是一件非常丢脸的事情。”
then to come to me for photos is a very embarrassing thing.”
So……我的老师必须牛，我的学生也必须牛。
So… my teacher must be brilliant, and my students must also be brilliant.
当然我不需要牛。
Of course, I don’t require myself to be brilliant.
人以是非判立场，狗以主人认对错！
People judge positions based on right and wrong; dogs identify their masters based on such judgments!
赚钱靠运气，守钱靠实力。
Making money relies on luck; keeping money depends on strength.
大多数人，错把赚钱当成自己的实力！
Most people mistakenly equate making money with their own strength!
时来天地皆同力，
When opportunities arrive, all earthly forces align,
运去英雄不自由！
However, when misfortune comes, heroes find themselves unfree!
坐以待毙，抑或向死而生？
Should one sit and await death, or strive to thrive even in adversity?
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