特色

The Destiny of Direct Sales Roots and Its Inevitable Demise

Tianwen Note: As an independent researcher of the Chinese direct selling industry with limited proficiency in English, I have written this article for over 10 years. Despite the decline of direct selling in China, new retail models such as social e-commerce and WeChat business that are based on the core logic of doubling still thrive in China and never ceased. I believe that the fate and fatal flaws behind the industry that I pointed out continue to affect the new generation of micro-entrepreneurs. With the birth of ChatGPT, I have retrieved this article and asked it to translate and spread it in the English-speaking world to stimulate more thinking and discussion among professionals in various countries and regions, which may have some value.

Original text as follows:

For someone who has been immersed in the direct sales industry since the age of 20 and has tirelessly practiced and researched it for over a decade, it is surprising that they would suddenly begin to refute the direct sales industry. Clearly, this is an extremely special case within the direct sales community.

To refute direct sales is not to deny its historical significance and relevance in its respective era. Rather, it is to address the current context in which direct sales has become an outdated and unsuitable marketing model. To understand this, we must first analyze the larger context in which the direct sales industry was born.

1. The Background of Direct Sales

The early concept of direct sales was mostly defined from a sales perspective. It originated from Avon’s founding in 1886, where Avon ladies were hired to conduct single-level direct sales, i.e. Face 2 Face sales. The modern definition of direct sales, namely multi-level direct (or network) sales, was born with Amway’s founding in 1959.

Whether it is Avon-style single-level direct sales, Amway’s predecessor Nutrilite’s flawed multi-level direct sales, or the birth of numerous global multi-level direct sales companies in the 1970s and 1980s (such as Forever, Mary Kay, and Herbalife), they all carry distinct characteristics of the times. That is the result of fierce competition in the post-industrial era.

In the agricultural era when resources were scarce and demand exceeded supply, there was no possibility of modern marketing and advertising promotion. The invention of the steam engine brought about the first industrial revolution, directly resulting in an increase in production scale. The competition in this era marked the beginning of modern commercial competition, and people began to discern and pursue the quality of similar products. Hence, modern management represented by Drucker was based on this competitive experience.

The two world wars resulted in the advent of the automotive industry, which relied primarily on oil as its main resource. Production began to grow on a large scale, and the competition between countries after the war directly led to the establishment of the modern marketing system founded by Philip Kotler. The further fierce competition also gave birth to the birth of modern advertising. Therefore, marketing and advertising are almost two sides of the same coin, becoming the best means and weight for competition among large enterprises.

For small and medium-sized enterprises and entrepreneurial individuals who hold high-quality products but have no access to the marketing channels and advertising competition between large enterprises, they have entered a bottleneck that is almost stifling. Direct sales were born under such a demand for low-cost expansion and high-growth development.

The history is already far away. It is said that the boss of Nutrilite, Carl Rehnborg, was unable to market his high-quality products despite his passion for them. By chance, he met two Harvard students who creatively invented the current multi-level direct (or network) sales model that now rages worldwide.

This history has been mythologized, with some saying it was two Jews, and others claiming it was two mathematical geniuses. However, regardless of what the historical facts actually were, there is one reality: the purpose was to sell products through word-of-mouth marketing by personnel.

This era has already determined one concept, that multi-level direct sales is a typical personnel sales model. Its core is to establish a sales channel and pathway through marketing personnel (salespersons or direct sellers).

2. The Social Psychological Principles of Direct Sales

The birth of Amway Nutrilite’s multi-level marketing model is undoubtedly one of the greatest inventions of that era. As Amway’s corporate culture emphasizes, it provides the best quality products and a unique opportunity for everyone to have their own business.

Initially, if you asked almost all direct sellers why they wanted to participate in the direct sales industry, they would almost unanimously answer, “The products are great!”

If the product is so high-quality, almost all users will quickly experience a physiological pleasure of satisfaction! This physiological pleasure is bound to trigger a social demand as a social animal, which is irresistible to share. The sharing promoted by this social psychological demand undoubtedly reinforces the user’s pleasure.

Therefore, direct sales was born under these seemingly very reasonable conditions.

Then, someone asked why, under the same mechanism of physiological and social psychological satisfaction, it was born in the United States rather than other countries or regions? As an aside, this may have a lot to do with the hundreds of years of tradition of Protestantism in America. As we all know, Protestantism on American soil uses a family-style gathering and witnessing miracles sharing mechanism to achieve rapid dissemination and development. After World War II, the adjustment, growth, and competitive environment of the US economy were providing a more appropriate breakthrough and carrier for this evangelism mechanism (which is essentially sharing) in commercial behavior – multi-level direct sales.

Based on our understanding of the competitive environment of the era of large-scale production, we can basically determine that direct sales were invented when high-quality products could not be pushed into the market. Although this marketing model seemingly fits the social psychological mechanism of human nature at that time (remember, I said it seemed to fit, there will be a dedicated discussion later), it has led to the global prevalence of this model in direct sales for over half a century.

Only by understanding the social psychology mechanism that gave birth to this multi-level direct sales model can we understand why this model was eventually resisted and marginalized by mainstream society.

3. Why did the value system of direct selling collapse?

As previously mentioned, we can summarize the birth of direct selling as follows: the left hand satisfies physiological needs with high-quality products, and the right hand obtains happiness by sharing to fulfill social psychological needs.

However, is it really like this in reality? Few people doubt its rationality. Rather, most people see it as an American Dream – a dream where individuals can start a business from scratch by building a sales team through personal efforts and become rich.

This destiny rooted in direct selling thus came into being, and the rat race that was born with it also accompanied it. In other words, direct selling has been caught in a nightmare of demonization and coexistence since its inception.

Let’s take a look at why the mainstream population resents direct selling fundamentally:

Firstly, the inventor of direct selling established the joy of sharing as a reward-based incentive system on the right hand, rewarding performance evaluation of your sharing behaviors. If you are careful enough, you will notice that the joy of sharing purely from your nature has been replaced by the pain of “sales” here. However, for most people, the excitement of the product and the dream advocated by this business mechanism have already covered up the fact that the joy of sharing has been replaced.

Statistics show that 97% of people in the world resist going into sales, and 100% of people do not want to be pushed to buy something. This is human nature. However, while they are excited as consumers of high-quality products, they are not mentally prepared to work as professional salespeople. Yet, they are led by this exciting entrepreneurial opportunity to a frenzy.

It is conceivable that when he believes that he has found the world’s best entrepreneurial opportunity and business with enthusiasm, and shares this business opportunity with his relatives and friends, he will inevitably face the consequences of a rejection rate that could reach 100%.

Most (about 80%) of those who accidentally enter the direct selling industry choose to give up under the pressure of rejection from their loved ones. However, no one is willing to find their own reasons for giving up. They are more willing to attribute their failure to this sales model being impractical or even to impulsive mistakes and deception. Because they are eager to regain acceptance and recognition from their former friends, and to return to the comfort zone of life. And their actions have reinforced the resistance and misunderstanding of this sales model among more mainstream social groups. This was the original pain that multi-level direct selling brought to practitioners.

If this primitive pain is not a big deal, then the few (about 20%) who are unwilling to give up their dreams and this business begin to embark on an irreversible path, even a devil’s path.

These few people continue to move forward on their dream path. However, they quickly discovered that people with the same qualifications, abilities, and efforts could earn very lucrative income in just six months, while others spent two or three years without progress or even stagnation. After summarizing the lessons, they found that the first reason was that the team leaders and recommenders of others were outstanding, while their own team leaders and recommenders were inadequate. So they entered the first growth trajectory in the direct selling industry – internal reshuffling.

The experience and results of changing teams were quickly verified. An excellent direct selling company needs to grow with an excellent team. However, many people soon discovered that the company they had chosen as their first love was likely to be unsatisfactory under the impact of other companies. The worst thing was that after jumping to another direct selling company, members of the team who used to be in the same battle trench as themselves soon earned a lot of money, making them envious!

Where is the reason? After summarizing the experience again, they found that the direct selling enterprise was not one, and in competition, direct selling enterprise owners began to constantly withdraw commission from direct sellers rather than increase it, or reduce the difficulty of obtaining commissions. Faced with this competitive background, the wise choice is to once again choose a direct selling partnership that is better than their original company. This is the second growth trajectory in the direct selling industry – corporate reshuffling.

At this point, we will find that the essence of the left-hand happiness and right-hand happiness in the direct selling industry is gradually changing with the intensification of internal and external competition in direct enterprises.

Firstly, in the competitive environment of direct sellers or even direct selling companies, products are becoming less and less important, while the bonus system needs to be increasingly adjusted to its optimal state. What is the optimal state of the bonus system? Withdrawal rate? Difficulty? Therefore, if you search for changes in the direct selling industry’s systems over the past half-century, you will find a shocking universal phenomenon worldwide:

From a zero-base to an accumulation base, from low quality to hierarchical bonuses, from solar lines to matrix structures, from matrix structures to dual-track systemsand hybrid systems, and from binary systems to unicorns, what has been added is not the improvement of product quality but the optimization of the bonus system. The original intention of satisfying physiological needs through high-quality products has been gradually replaced by the desire for monetary gain.

Secondly, in the competitive environment of direct sellers, the joy of sharing has gradually become the pain of sales. Direct sellers are no longer focusing on the joy of sharing their high-quality products with others, but rather on how to win bonuses and commissions by pushing people to buy products and join their team.

Therefore, the value system of direct selling collapsed because it became increasingly driven by monetary incentives and less focused on genuine product quality and the joy of sharing. The sales-driven approach led to high rejection rates and reinforced negative attitudes towards the industry among the mainstream population.

4. Direct selling is destined to perish in its evolution

Throughout the history of multi-level direct selling for over half a century, the author even looked back to Avon’s birth in 1886, researching and summing up three waves of growth based on the evolution of direct selling system: retail-oriented with Avon, Mary Kay, Jafra as early single-level direct selling representatives; recommendation-oriented with Amway starting from tiered direct selling such as Herbalife and Forever; consumption-oriented with hierarchical and dual-track models with companies like Mead Johnson and New Era.

Interestingly, with the intensification of competition, old-fashioned single-level direct selling companies such as Avon, Mary Kay, and Jafra have started to modify their single-level model to a multi-level one like Amway’s successful model. Meanwhile, Amway, Herbalife, etc., have increasingly realized the importance of locking in end consumers, while new-style companies have set their sights on sales elites of these old-school direct selling companies believing that capturing this group of successful distributors can directly take over the “pipeline” (marketing channel).

However, as mentioned earlier, the struggle for channels between direct selling companies directly brings about competition for high commission ratios with distributors, and almost all direct selling companies and distributor teams focus on how to increase sales and improve performance. This directly leads to the result that large numbers of direct selling companies’ distributors hoard goods for achieving performance and rank. The new generation of companies seems to have more tricks up their sleeves. To effectively solve the problem of hoarding and reduce the “difficulty of success,” they directly increase the membership threshold to a high level, hoping for rapid expansion and quick wealth.

The result of focusing on short-term gains and pursuing high profits and quick wealth is that products are repeatedly ignored or even virtualized, and it has brought more extreme phenomena such as cross-regional pyramid schemes and financial pyramid schemes in mainland China. The barefaced behavior of pyramid schemes has blurred the line between so-called legal enterprises and underground pyramid scheme enterprises. This is also what the author wrote in a special article last year, where mainland China has entered a comprehensive “licensed pyramid scheme era.”

All of these lead to the formation of a set of internal operating rules within the direct selling industry, completely detached from the valuable “manufacturer-channel distributor-end consumer” marketing chain and becoming a speculative gamble, a game of chance. The result of self-circulation and marginalization will inevitably cause it to move further away from mainstream society and towards a path of inevitable death and irredeemability.

To rejuvenate the direct selling industry, external forces are needed when internal solutions cannot be found.

With the advent of the Internet in the 21st century, no one could have predicted its birth, which accelerated the death of direct selling companies. This unexpected information revolution quickly brought all products with inflated prices for high commission ratios, through hoarding sales by direct selling refugees and the operation of organized scalpers, back to the real value law on e-commerce platforms.

The cancer of direct selling has since been terminal. Distributor leaders of major direct selling companies can only switch companies with their teams in a carousel-like manner to seek a reshuffle, rather than exploring new markets. The mainstream society’s perception of the direct selling circle is getting worse day by day.

It is worth noting that since the beginning of this century, the Chinese market, due to WTO entry and direct selling legislation, seemed to have started to recover superficially. In fact, this is only a special expression of the lagging Chinese mainland market and economic imbalance.

If you lose rational thinking about the global economic integration of the information age and indulge in this superficial prosperity and vanity, you will inevitably head towards death without realizing it. If you have insight, you can conclude that the death knell of direct selling has been sounded by the Internet!

No destruction, no construction. Only by being reconstructed and breaking free from the fate of direct selling itself can the direct selling industry undergo a thorough transformation and possibly have a truly promising future. As a marketing model, it may disappear or need to be redefined to be viable.

In 2003, the author creatively proposed a concept called “Direct Consumption” in mainland China, and gave it a new double meaning in 2006: consumption and disappearance.

It can be foreseen that in the Internet age, if direct selling companies expect their quality products to be accepted and recognized by the market, they must first pass the hurdle of inflated prices and truly return to the origin of consumer benefits. The demonization of quick profits and the fate of direct selling on its roots must come to an end.

The greatest pain of foreseeing the future is that you may be a prophet or a martyr. What kind of business model can bring about a comprehensive solution for the direct selling industry? Has it already been created? Does it already exist and succeed?

This is a question.

Tianwen’s Old Draft: Analysis of Melaleuca’s Business Model

Tianwen Note: This article was written more than 10 years ago and has been circulated on several WeChat platforms. Despite being copied and spread, its value and commitment to the social e-commerce model – the new “pyramid scheme” flooding the market today – remain relevant.

I have just finished the defense for my project on the ICB program at the University of Hong Kong, and now have some free time. Here, I am re-publishing this old article, updating it with some official pictures as illustrations, and reorganizing my thoughts. I will also come up with new works based on the current situation to share with you.

Melaleuca – The Terminator Model of Direct Selling

Since 2008, when I learned about the business model and operational philosophy of Melaleuca under the guidance of my teacher Wei, I boldly put forward that Melaleuca is a model that opposes and terminates direct selling.

This astonishing statement almost made me an enemy of the direct sales industry.

I often shared my observations of the direct selling industry over the past decade and the reasons for my ultimate disappointment with it- that the value system of the industry had collapsed, and the entire direct selling industry was showing signs of obsolescence, degradation, and inefficiency.

Many in the industry criticized my views as extreme and radical. On the one hand, my grasp and analysis of trends often gained recognition from many old friends in the direct selling industry, but they were also very unhappy about them. It’s not difficult to understand why – after all, many people depend on the industry for their livelihood. Most of my friends in the circle have been in it for three to five years, and some for more than ten years. They have accumulated a lot of experience and can use it to make big profits. Why would they be willing to let go and join me in rejecting the industry’s values and significance? My views have become a sharp sword that threatens their livelihoods. How could they be accepted by direct selling experts who have enjoyed considerable success in recent years? It is unfortunate!

However, every time I dissected the essence and drawbacks of direct sales, it often won the support of mainstream society, especially friends who were averse or victimized by direct sales. The market verifies everything. This is the reason why I believe in the future of “direct consumption” – consumer-oriented organizational marketing. Since 2008, my “Wealthy System · Secret Team” (now evolved into the “Chengmei System”) has become one of the few Melaleuca operating teams on the mainland with more than 80% of its core members from mainstream society.

Can Melaleuca really solve the problems inherent to the direct sales industry, such as hype, hoarding, large orders, unstable performance, and team hopping?

Media outlets, experts, major team leaders, and distributors in the domestic direct sales industry seem to be dismissive of this. There are even media articles pinning Melaleuca’s lack of recognition as direct selling as the reason for its poor performance. However, these ideas and opinions are absurd to those who understand Melaleuca, just like how they perceive Melaleuca people’s absurd views.

Why is that? The reason is simple: when Melaleuca, an innovative marketing model or business model, entered China, most people did not understand or comprehend it. It was even controversial and difficult to classify in the United States itself. Inertia prevailed, and the first to initiate and participate in the market had to be direct selling professionals who originated from there. Moreover, because Melaleuca also belongs to the field of organizational marketing, it must apply for and obtain the so-called “direct selling license” in mainland China.

Is Melaleuca really direct selling? Or multi-level marketing? Even the global wisdom of Wikipedia has not reached a conclusion. It wisely and impartially proposes a brand new concept – the “Consumer Direct Purchase System (CDM)”- and makes a comparison and distinction table between it and multi-level marketing (MLM).

This controversial model moves forward and grows dynamically. However, it is almost certain that Melaleuca’s business model will take time to become familiar and recognized by the general public, and for direct salespeople to understand its qualitative differences. Therefore, this process of popularization and in-depth understanding is also Melaleuca’s market timing and growth process. Therefore, we can only smile lightly at the unfounded criticism from outsiders about the “poor performance” and “failure to recognize” Melaleuca.

“City people want to go out of the city, and people outside the city want to enter the city.” This is a famous assertion invented by the great scholar Qian Zhongshu. However, recently, I heard an idea called the “anti-city wall concept.” That is, “city people don’t want to leave the city, but people outside the city don’t want to enter.” Interestingly, this concept applies to Melaleuca. In other words, those who truly understand Melaleuca will definitely operate it and never give up, while those who do not understand Melaleuca are generally unable to enter it.

Many people are curious and perhaps even strange about what my teacher Wei told me that made me stay in Melaleuca for three years and become more convinced of it.

The Core Concept of “Five Twos” in Melaleuca

Three years ago, I met Mr. Wei and at that time, I did not know about his classic summary of the “Eight Characteristics of Melaleuca”. However, I later customized his most important points into the “Five Twos” concept. These points allowed me to fully understand Melaleuca and commit myself to its mission of solving the problems of the direct selling industry. The core values of Melaleuca, as explained by Mr. Wei, include how Melaleuca can end direct selling and how its consumer direct marketing (CDM) model is superior to traditional direct selling.

In this article, I will discuss the “Five Twos” core concept that I have observed in Melaleuca’s values.

1. Two Gifts

1)The first of the “Two Gifts” is safety:

a gift that is ordinary but precious, and one that many people in the direct selling industry often overlook. Melaleuca’s tea tree oil products are of such high quality and popularity that it made sense to sell them directly to consumers without any intermediaries. To achieve this, Melaleuca removed the pressure on its members to sell products and instead allowed them to use the products without the risk of stockpiling. Members are only allowed to purchase a certain amount of products each month to prevent excessive buying, with additional compensation levels set even lower than the maximum purchase limit. This means that even if a member recommends a purchase beyond the limit, they would not receive any benefit. Melaleuca’s innovative approach provides a safer and more sustainable business model that eliminates the negative aspects of traditional direct selling, making Melaleuca more appealing to mainstream society. Plus, anyone who likes the products can try them without fear of getting stuck with unsold inventory, which solves the risk problem commonly found in direct selling.

2) The second gift: simplicity – easy to do.

When it comes to simplicity, it’s also a difficult realm for direct sellers to enter. In fact, to successfully operate direct selling as a marketing model, it often requires high comprehensive qualities and stress resistance. Therefore, operating direct selling is not a simple task. It is almost impossible for someone who has not been in the direct selling industry for three to five years to occupy a place in the industry. And now, almost all people who can make money in the direct selling industry have abundant experience, meaning they paid tuition fees.

However, this reality was broken again by Melaleuca. You will find that in countries and regions where Melaleuca is already mature, early Melaleuca successes often do not have strong overall abilities. Their biggest characteristic is that they like products and consumption. Similarly, from my personal experience building a Melaleuca team in mainland China for three years, most of the members are not highly talented or have a direct selling background, yet they often perform better in Melaleuca than direct sellers.

Why is this? Melaleuca’s business has an uncommon simplicity. Therefore, Melaleuca has a very famous course in its operation mode and education training called “Simple Recommendations.” In the traditional direct selling operation mode, due to the company’s orientation and the orientation of the team system education, the main focus is on finding operators rather than real end consumers. Therefore, when you start recommending, you must inevitably launch a simple and profound OPP entrepreneurial briefing to help your recommended targets deeply understand the benefits of various direct selling and earning opportunities.

But not for Melaleuca. Melaleuca only needs to find consumers. Throughout the entire recommendation process, the company solves all problems related to cash flow and logistics. All you need to do is casually and naturally recommend to friends and tell them to try a different brand and take care of you. There is no need to stock up, collect money, sell goods or ask them to operate.

For Melaleuca’s business positioning of members, their identity is more like that of a celebrity endorser. What they advocate for with gestures and actions is nothing but a lifestyle, a quality of life, and an opportunity to choose environmentally friendly products with the highest cost-effectiveness. And this is already the start and operation of your career.

Melaleuca has become a way of life, and it is no longer a choice. Choices are often a painful either-or situation, but what if you just add to your life, add points, and change your shopping habits once a month? The answer is self-evident! All major paths are hidden in simplicity!

2. Two powers/

1) The power of Cumulative

One of the greatest power in nature is accumulation, as drops of water can wear away stone and sand can build a tower. In almost all traditional business and sales fields, what you see is the result of your personal efforts being constantly sold out. The reason is simple: you earn as much income and commission as the amount of sales you make.

Direct selling, once considered a “pipeline business,” means building a sales pipeline (known as a pipeline in traditional marketing concepts). The story of “Pipeline” is almost sacred to all direct salespeople. However, in an era where sales are about to be terminated and consumer-oriented trends are emerging, I declare loudly that “The Story of Pipeline is being terminated, and may have even been terminated.

Why? Because the pipeline you work hard to build is undergoing ruthless competition in the market. Early direct sellers were able to build excellent sales pipelines, but with intensified competition and the struggle for pipeline benefits, people began to advocate a competition that ignores end consumers: splitting pipelines and taking over other pipelines.

Your pipeline is leaking!

You are still in a leaky pipeline, competing to see whose water flows in faster and stronger. This is the essence of the comparison between direct selling companies and direct sellers! The result of their performance comparison is that they must use more methods to stimulate the influx of water (deceiving new recruits to buy large orders). However, the larger the influx of water, the greater the risk, which is that the pipeline is at risk of bursting at any time. Therefore, the collapse, opening, start-up K-value, restructuring, and chaos have become the norm in the industry. As a result of constant inflow and leakage, you can only pursue monthly new recruits to obtain profits. There is no difference between this kind of profit and the story of carrying buckets back then. You are just doing another kind of work, a disguised form of carrying buckets.

Almost all direct sales team leaders talk about the extraordinary freedom brought by the story of the pipeline. However, you will find that the bigger the leader, the more unclean things they do with both hands. They set fires on the left hand-digging other people’s teams; and put out fires on the right hand to prevent their own teams from being dug. They call it “integration.” The bigger they are, the harder they work. Extraordinary freedom, where does it come from?

Everyone is extraordinary, but everyone is not free.

Understanding this cruel reality, you will surely ask: “What about Melaleuca? What is Melaleuca doing?”

It says that its focus is not on the size of performance or the size of the “inflow” of this pipeline. It cares about whether these water flows into the pipeline leak or how much they leak. Almost all direct selling companies are ignoring or even abandoning end consumers, but Melaleuca picked them up.

Melaleuca has established a system that no other direct selling company has—the “Consumer Retention System.” It is this system that has transformed Melaleuca from a failing “Pipeline Story” to an era of “Reservoir Story.”

The first focus of Melaleuca’s “Consumer Retention System” is not the “inflow” (of course, the larger the inflow, the better), but rather to provide comprehensive services through a carefully crafted system for all consumers who come in through simple referrals, allowing all members to ultimately be retained after a trial period of up to six months and make recurring purchases every month.

When a reservoir is established and the inflow is always greater than the outflow, have you noticed that a great force-cumulative force has been generated?

For the direct sales field, the biggest problem is either no end users (companies that speculate can only recruit distributors from other companies) or end users cannot be retained. Its essence is the problem of customer churn rate. Most direct sellers are not lazy or unable to recommend. The key is when they are recommending customers (rather than direct sellers), after spending a lot of effort using various OPPs, product demonstrations, and recommendations, these customers quietly leave after purchasing the products they joined in the second month.

Poor direct sellers keep looking for customers every month and bring people to the venue again and again to create new results in the following month. An ordinary direct seller with limited abilities is stuck in a vicious cycle of continuous recommendations and losses, accumulating more and more stocks and heavier burdens until finally dying out. Even if a direct seller with strong capabilities understands one truth: “Sales are not terrible, but lifelong sales are terrible.”

As for Melaleuca, this set of customer retention system it created helps you retain the efforts you make every month—every customer you recommend is accumulated and retained for you.

Assuming that you found 2 customers in the first month, you made money from 2 customers; in the second month, you found2 more customers and retained the previous 2 customers, so you made money from 4 customers; in the third month, you found 2 more customers and retained the previous 4 customers, so you made money from 6 customers. This cumulative force is like a snowball rolling down the hill, getting bigger and bigger.

Why? You only made 2 new referrals each month, but the company’s customer retention system helped you retain the previous efforts. Continuing for a year, you could theoretically earn the money of 24 customers.

In reality, can the company retain 100% of customers? Of course not. The proportion of Melaleuca’s customers that can be retained will be discussed later. But the key principle to note here is that if Melaleuca is a reservoir, as long as your inflow is always greater than your outflow, what happens? Your reservoir water level will continue to rise.

If you don’t have the ability, can you slowly accumulate customers? If you don’t have time and are only part-time, and Melaleuca doesn’t give you performance pressure, can you slowly accumulate?

This is exactly where Melaleuca solves another major problem that no other direct selling company has solved: “Can I succeed? Can my friends around me succeed?”-the issue of success rate.

Many outstanding talents in the industry would rather work for hype companies, not just because they make money faster. It’s because they are afraid that a constantly selling company will trap them into the quagmire of performance, so they prefer to gamble. Only by understanding this point about Melaleuca can their confidence be rebuilt from scratch.

If the security of the Melaleuca business makes me feel like becoming a Melaleuca member can have a certain lifestyle, then the accumulation of the Melaleuca business truly touched me and made me willing to gather the courage to start from scratch again after leaving the market frontline for eight years.

2) The power of doubling

If accumulative power brings about the accumulation of individual strength, then the power of doubling brings about the accumulation of team strength. It is also the real business leverage for Melaleuca to grow.

Melaleuca’s accumulative power is actually similar to that of a franchise system. It helps each operating member to accumulate their own store’s customers. The doubling system is a process of opening more direct sales stores and franchise shops.

The idea is simple: if I am a Melaleuca member who loves and uses their products, I can influence around 20-30 friends to use them as well. But I don’t need all those 20-30 members to operate Melaleuca with me. However, I can find three to five friends with the same values as me to do the same thing – influence 20-30 users of Melaleuca products.

Many people say that Melaleuca’s doubling principle is the same as that of direct selling. But it’s not entirely true. Direct selling’s doubling often involves finding five operators through one operator, then finding 25 operators to build a sales team where operators take up 80-90% of the group. Melaleuca’s doubling is finding 5-6 operators who are among 20-30 product lovers influenced by an operating consumer according to the 20/80 rule. This is the typical difference between operator doubling “1-5-25” and consumer doubling “1-25-5.”

It is this difference in doubling that determines the different organizational stability. For example, with the same monthly revenue of 200,000, five operators in a direct selling enterprise may each complete 40,000 to achieve it. Meanwhile, at Melaleuca, it is achieved by 500 customers (including around 20-30 operators) spending 400 yuan per month. If any of the five operators in the direct selling team have problems in a given month, it could cause significant fluctuations or even result in failure. However, even if all 20-30 operators at Melaleuca have problems, it would only affect a maximum revenue of 30 yuan x 400 people = 12,000 yuan.

This shows that Melaleuca’s doubling system is more like a traditional franchise system where profits from the base store enable the expansion and opening of branch stores. In contrast, direct selling often has no customers in the base store but has already developed the “store owner” throughout the city. A direct selling team with an empty network and a claimed million members is nothing but a group of zombie teams with only ID profiles and no practical meaning.

The existence of zombie teams’ emptiness and meaninglessness determines that in direct selling, two old friends meeting and greeting each other will ask, “How is your monthly performance? How much is your monthly income now?” because performance determines income. But in Melaleuca, two knowledgeable people meeting and greeting each other will ask, “How many customers do you have now?” because the number of Melaleuca customers means how many are actively consuming and how stable the operator’s income is.

The market extension of the doubling principle has completely different essences and outcomes. The key essence lies in Melaleuca’s focus on “people,” i.e., real end consumers. Only by understanding this can those experts who come from operating businesses and direct selling backgrounds avoid falling into the trap of “performance orientation” when entering Melaleuca.

3. Two Numbers

Two numbers actually form a formula:

What does it equal? Let me tease you for a moment, and I will explain later.

1) 95% Customer Reorder Rate

How can we understand the 95% customer reorder rate in Melaleuca?

Many people interpret it as meaning that if 100 new Melaleuca members join, the company can help you retain 95 of them to continue using the products next month. This directly leads to many people not believing that such a thing is possible, and that the 95% figure is false.

The more accurate definition is this: if 100 new Melaleuca members join, after the six-month product trial period (during which the company gives half-year welcome gifts to new members who continue to consume), 95 will be retained by the company’s customer retention system.

Without Melaleuca’s 95%, the cumulative force discussed earlier cannot be achieved. Therefore, only when discussing Melaleuca’s 95% reorder rate does it mean that the value of Melaleuca’s business is gradually improving.

It is impossible to retain 100% of customers. Mr. VanderSloot set a target for the reorder rate – 95% – 26 years ago, and built a customer retention system around this number. When people first hear about this system, they usually ask with great interest, “What strategies did Melaleuca adopt to retain customers?”

Most members operating Melaleuca are eager to answer with various methods and strategies adopted by Melaleuca, except for Wei Laoshi, the founder. Whenever someone asks this question, Wei Laoshi smiles and answers, “You don’t really need to know the specifics of how it’s done. What you need to do is believe that it’s already a fact!”

I understand it this way: Melaleuca, as a 26-year-old American company, cannot lie about this number. The reason why Wei Laoshi answered in this way is to tell the other person that 95% is the company’s belief and a totem of its business strategy.

Imagine if an enterprise from the founder to the management team, from the management team to the employees, from senior team leaders to ordinary members all have this belief, then this enterprise would naturally use systematic thinking to use every means to retain new members who join.

To give a less appropriate analogy: if the police surround a building with robbers inside, won’t they do everything possible to prevent them from escaping? And the robbers will do everything possible to try to escape? Both sides may be studying all the possible escape routes, including the front and back doors, windows, even sewers and rooftops. Similarly, Melaleuca studies customer loss and adopts the same strategy to pursue customers in all directions.

Let’s take a brief look at one of the impact strategies of Melaleuca operators and the company’s customer retention system:

Assuming that the member you recommended initially joined Melaleuca simply out of respect for you and used the products for six months after you took the lead in ordering and the company followed up on service for 4-6 months. When the amount of products used by this member increases to more than 20-30, and he or she falls in love with five or six of the 20-30 products, the habit of using Melaleuca’s products every month for 340 RMB (or 35 points) can be formed and continued – reorder is not a problem.

Here is a scale of personal influence decay and the impact enhancement of Melaleuca’s customer retention system:

Global CD6 Ed. Bestoso, once summarized the experience of retaining Melaleuca customers into four key elements:

Four Key Elements of Customer Retention:

  • 1. A healthy and environmentally friendly concept
  • 2. Correct use of Melaleuca products
  • 3. Use more than 20-30 types of products, with 5-6 that members cannot do without
  • 4. Teach members to order proactively themselves

2) 35 Points/Month Consumption Amount (or RMB 370/RMB)

In my three years of running Melaleuca, I have encountered countless mainstream consumers and direct sellers who do not understand why Melaleuca requires a monthly consumption of 35 points (or RMB 370 in mainland China). The reason is that it may seem like forced consumption.

To this, I always ask them with a smile: “Think about what monthly expenses you have at home that are subscription-based?”

The answer is revealed immediately: our home’s closed-circuit fees, broadband fees, mobile phone fees…there are always a few things that are subscription-based, and as our consumption habits extend, we subscribe to more and more things. For example, my member QQ and my Thunder account are both subscription-based. The problem is, do you feel like you’re being forced to consume with these subscriptions?

Therefore, the 35-point monthly consumption cycle is actually related to your habit construction. Melaleuca did not initially require you to participate in 35-point monthly consumption forcibly. It only suggests that you try it for six months, giving you many benefits and gifts within six months to cultivate your habit. Finally, you will think that this is a company that provides you with essential products that you cannot live without.

In this sense, it is a true family necessity – after water, electricity, gas, closed circuit, and telephone (and network broadband), it is the “sixth channel.”

Why do I have to use Melaleuca? Can’t I choose other direct sales companies or products from big supermarkets?

Right. This thinking is not wrong. I think it mainly depends on two points: the product is really so good that I cannot live without it, and it makes me feel cost-effective and without economic pressure when using it.

There is a very famous book and video called “The Gold in the Home” in the direct sales industry. In fact, the principle it talks about is very correct: treat household daily expenses as an investment asset and develop a business. However, in the direct sales field with high prices and sales pressure-oriented sales, real consumers cannot participate in and construct such a “gold mine” business. Only Melaleuca, a company that truly focuses on consumer orientation, constructs essential products into your life habits and controls product cost-effectiveness within the most reasonable range, can achieve this.

Humans do not necessarily need services such as tap water, electricity, gas, closed-circuit, telephone, and broadband in every household from the beginning. The development of these industries is constructed by the habits that consumers increasingly rely on, and the huge business opportunities and prospects of these industries are what all entrepreneurs covet. The problem is that you and I do not have the strength to participate in these nearly monopolistic, state-owned business opportunities.

Melaleuca is just such a company that operates on consumer habits. 35 points (or RMB 370) – in this sense, it is no longer simple sales and promotion, nor is it a small single sales business. Perhaps, it does start as a product endorser or a widely recognized advertiser, but what you create is an entrepreneurial opportunity at the level of an entrepreneur.

Because what is precious is that it creates a consumer direct purchasing system, using the same principles as the other “five channels” of the family, but giving us a starting point as consumers to establish a great business opportunity.

What is more valuable than 35 points/month (RMB 370/month)?!

4. Two types of income: temporary income vs. passive income

Initially popular in China, direct selling brought several misconceptions to Chinese entrepreneurs who started from scratch: “This is the last chance for quick (or even explosive) wealth in the 20th century.” “Whoever owns the network (or channel), whoever can achieve extraordinary freedom!” These so-called “quick wealth,” “explosive wealth,” and “extraordinary freedom” have largely led direct sellers down a greedy path. They pursue speculations, success shortcuts, and even effortless gains. Among them, more experienced “leaders” increasingly professionalized and specialized the operation of direct selling. The professional form eventually reduced direct sales to “a business in which a few people who think they are smarter go and fool a group of fools and train them to become swindlers” (popular slang in the industry).

What is most heartbreaking is that the essence of direct selling has become a naked exploitation of the only primitive accumulation ordinary people have – their limited time, energy, and social networks. It directly turns a large number of participants into socially bankrupt refugees at the bottom of society.

The manipulative tactics of direct selling possess typical short-term effects, mutual conflicts, and vicious competition, which determines its unstable and temporary nature of income. So where does the so-called channel income and extraordinary freedom of direct selling come from? To understand the real meaning of these concepts, we need to start with the “Rich Dad” series of books that have been popular in China and introduced some unfamiliar concepts to the Chinese. Direct sellers often quote the theory of “Rich Dad” and claim that the pipeline income in “The Story of the Pipeline” by author Robert Kiyosaki is a type of passive income.

Let’s first define passive income. Passive income refers to income that can be automatically obtained without spending much time and effort or taking care of it. At first glance, it may seem like “getting something for nothing,” but in reality, it often requires long-term labor and accumulation before obtaining passive income. Passive income is a necessary prerequisite for achieving financial freedom and early retirement.

With passive income comes corresponding active income. Here, we need to clarify some corresponding income concepts: from a financial perspective, active income, also known as temporary income or salary income; passive income, also known as continuous income or asset income.

Temporary income refers to income that “exists only when you do it, and disappears when you don’t.” Most people today have temporary income, so it is also called active income. The advantage of active income is that it is easy to obtain – you just need to find a job and work hard for a while. However, the disadvantage is the lack of sustainability, meaning that it is like a “bucket-carrying” job where you have money if you work this month, and none if you don’t work next month. After your work stops, the length of time you can maintain your expenses is your financial life span. Most people with temporary income have a financial lifespan ranging from two months to two years, but there is always a deadline. People with temporary income are simply selling their time and labor. As they age and become less energetic, their income will decline. Sales income and business income are typical types of active income.

Continuous income means “income without doing anything,” or “once worked hard for a while, enjoy an everlasting harvest and no worries about retirement.” The biggest difference between the rich and the poor lies in the former’s possession of continuous income, while the latter constantly strives to increase the size of temporary income rather than change the structure of their income. In theory, people who have continuous income and achieve financial freedom have a financial life span close to eternal life. True continuous income generally exists in three areas: real estate, such as having a house or shop rented out to others, with monthly rental income offsetting your expenses and leaving more than those of salaried employees; intellectual property, including royalties and patent rights; and businesses that can run automatically.

Careful consideration reveals that the so-called “pipeline” income that direct selling has been talking about is just a pseudo-concept. The vast majority of direct selling income comes from the performance created by new members who are recruited every month, rather than genuine “pipeline” income. Rather, it is a type of active income obtained through active management, a typical sales income – “bucket-carrying” income. It is far from true passive income because of the instability and cut-throat competition in direct selling, which has shattered any possibility of pipeline income becoming passive income.

The concept corresponding to continuous income is assets, which means that only by having assets can one have continuous income.

Now it’s time to reveal the answer to the formula of Melaleuca’s two numbers: 95% repurchase rate × 370 yuan/month/person = continuous income.

From this formula, we can see that the Melaleuca business, through your recommendation to customers and the operation of the company’s customer retention system, eventually locks in these customers as members with continuous consumption, even lifetime members. That is, you and the company jointly own assets that generate stable benefits.

So what kind of income does Melaleuca really make? If the customer is disloyal, it is just a sales object that occasionally sells, and you can only earn active income. If the customer is locked in as a loyal user with continuous cycle ordering, you no longer need to actively sell and serve them. At this point, it has entered Melaleuca’s consumer direct purchase system, and each of its repeated purchases generates a qualitative leap, producing asset income shared by you and the company.

Therefore, it can be concluded that the income generated by the Melaleuca business is real continuous income. Understanding the meaning of asset income allows us to truly understand the value of Melaleuca’s continuous income and how great its asset value is.

In mainland China, for example, if you have 500 customers in Melaleuca, you have stable continuous income or asset income of RMB 15,000 per month, which is roughly equivalent to five houses in mainland China rented out at RMB 3,000 per month. The asset value of these five houses is approximately RMB 5 million, and they are debt-free assets.

In Melaleuca, how many customers you have corresponds to how much asset you have.

Each of your customers is a cash machine worth RMB 10,000, which prints passive income of an average of RMB 30 per person per month. Stable “assets” of 500 customers mean that you have RMB 5 million and are called Senior Director in Melaleuca; stable “assets” of 1,000 customers mean that you have RMB 10 million and are called Executive Director.

When explaining the income characteristics and value of Melaleuca, Wei’s most classic saying is: “Poor people focus on the size and speed of income; rich people pay attention to the structure and source of income.

Only by understanding the value of continuous income can you truly see through the illusion and bubble of getting rich quickly in the direct sales industry. Only by understanding that managing Melaleuca is building assets can it truly motivate you to manage Melaleuca.

Melaleuca solves your lifelong financial security problem, that is, it changes your income structure and source. For this reason, I often share with my friends that if you find the feeling of “settling down and living a meaningful life” in Melaleuca, you have basically understood the value of this business.

5. Two Speeds: Speed of Life and Death vs. Tourist Train

Three years ago when I first joined Melaleuca, I wrote a blog post specifically discussing the huge difference in speed between Melaleuca’s business and traditional direct sales, and all sales businesses. In a direct sales company, driven by the design concept of “sales force,” salespeople must chase their “group performance (or new performance)” requirements every month as the company runs forward. “Performance” is actually a nightmare for a distributor. For a salesperson, the scariest thing in the world is not selling, but continuous selling. This principle also applies to all sales and business-related industries because each practitioner must pursue new performance every month.

This reminds me of a famous movie, “Speed,” where a bus full of passengers is rigged with a bomb by terrorists. As long as the bus’s speed exceeds 50 miles per hour, it cannot slow down below that speed, or the bomb will explode, and everyone on board will die. Similarly, the system and performance requirements set by sales-oriented companies determine that the company is like a dangerous train, and salespeople are exhaustedly selling and stocking up performance, while the company is rushing to push sales. Because once it stops, the whole enterprise will decline and die, and distributors mean that all previous efforts have been in vain.

Melaleuca’s consumption concept revolutionary locks the target on building the market with consumption power. It uses the power of the company’s four major service systems to successfully retain old customers who have been developed in the past, repeat consumption, and reorder. This makes the efforts of every Melaleuca accumulate, further settle, strengthen and superimpose.

Compared with the bus in “Speed,” Melaleuca is more like a tourist train, with more and more tourists (consumers) constantly boarding along the way. Perhaps the train is not moving too fast, but due to its purely consumption-oriented characteristics, its safety and comfort give people a pleasant tourist feeling. In the end, you can completely reach your target and achieve your respective desired success destination.

Comparing Melaleuca to a tourist train mainly illustrates its safety, comfort, and accessibility of the destination. However, many people draw the conclusion that Melaleuca is too slow! Sales business can allow me to earn satisfactory income in the shortest time.

As a result of my three years as an Executive Director at Melaleuca, it impressed a good friend who had struggled in sales for many years: “Sometimes, fast is slow, and slow is fast.” The reason is that in these three years, he was still struggling in various companies and sales businesses, while my efforts have accumulated results at Melaleuca.

Time is Melaleuca’s greatest weapon,” said Mr. Wei.

The more sales experts and business elites are, the more likely they are to be blinded by the quick income from sales and immersed in the high commission and sense of accomplishment from closing a big deal. If you look at it over time, in your life, your efforts may never have been accumulated, and the income you earn has always been temporary. And tomorrow, you still have to continue!

As the Buddhist saying goes, this is called karma.

Is it fast or slow? What is true speed? What is true slowness? You need wisdom to understand.

Conclusion: Delivering Prosperity

From “The Fate and Demise of Direct Sales” to “Analysis of Melaleuca’s Business Model,” perhaps you have seen the end of an era, a future trend, a new model in the over 10,000 words I wrote after a week of seclusion, and also understood Melaleuca for the first time.

“Enhancing The Lives of Those WeTouch by Helping People Reach Their Goals.”

Melaleuca In.

This seemingly ordinary sentence is a mission at Melaleuca. It allows every ordinary person to connect with this outstanding enterprise, and its goal is to help you achieve your goals. Through it, you can truly leverage your life and your future. Once and for all!

All of this is thanks to an outstanding entrepreneur 26 years ago who had a vision. He achieved an almost impossible 95% customer retention rate and created a brand-new business model called CDM. Most importantly, he provided a unique career opportunity.

Thank you, Melaleuca’s founder and president, Mr. VanderSloot.

Traditional direct sales businesses are easy to understand but difficult to do, while Melaleuca’s business is difficult to understand but easy to do.

We are even more grateful for my mentor, Mr. Wei Zhaoyang, who was the first Chinese person to understand and succeed in this business with wisdom 14 years ago. Without his initial analysis of the essence of direct sales, I would not have come up with a solution to my ten-year confusion about direct sales. Without his wholehearted efforts across the Taiwan Strait, I would not have achieved some success at Melaleuca. Without his three years of teaching, the content of this essay would not have been presented.

“It’s like climbing Mount Jade, some people walk alone, some people help others build roads during the climb. I think about where those who lack motivation and cannot keep up with the pace will stop and turn around. I will supplement what they lack.”

As a pioneer, Mr. Wei’s achievements are not just because he has many firsts, but because of his educator’s mindset every time he talks about Melaleuca’s business.

Melaleuca:The Wellness Company.

Without VanderSloot’s grand and compassionate vision, there would be no outstanding Melaleuca enterprise; without Wei’s correct interpretation and success, Taiwan’s Melaleuca would not be successful today. The future of Melaleuca in mainland China and even globally depends on our joint efforts to delivering wellness!

by Tianwen, mid-January 2012, at home in Chongqing.

一个史诗级的问题——推荐为什么越来越来难

1

无论是渐行渐远的直销、微商,还是如今合流到的新名词社交电商,但凡属于组织行销类的关系范畴推荐,都有一个史诗级的问题——推荐越来越来难。

无论你把这个推荐,叫分享、叫倍增,还是叫裂变。究其根本原因,在读完港大零售管理研究生两年学习后,在遇见新冠疫情2年的切身体验后,对这个问题的困惑,终于理得越来越清楚。

昨儿写了一句话:订阅制方兴未艾,美乐家群体免疫。

这句话中有一关键词,叫“群体免疫”。这个词是我从生物学中借用过来的词。它从根本上解释了为什么一家靠市场倍增原理经营的企业,为什么到一定阶段,都会面临着推荐越来越难的问题。

病毒传播到一定阶段和比例,就会出现群体免疫现象。

而以市场倍增为原理的各种直销、微商和社交电商,本身就有一个惊悚的同义词——病毒营销。如同病毒传播到阶段,也会出现同样的群体免疫情况。

如今其名称“安利”已经被等同于“分享”的安利公司,在全世界同样面临这一问题。耳畔犹记得当年某一市场营销领导人说过一句经典名言:

“我们是被世界上知道的人最多,但了解的人最少的公司。”

原因何在?当人们听过你的名字,但还不想了解或者未曾了解时,就已经把你打入信息汪洋的“死牢”了。

社交电商的品牌口碑,在某一阶段形成的“传销”的刻板印象,成为了传播过程中群体性免疫的死穴。

究其根本,则是大量市场大规模传播、营业额攀升时,其市场下沉过程中,信息的大量饱和式轰炸式与牛皮癣式刷屏,大量涌入的低素质从业者的各种骚操作,造成了一大批真实的终端消费者的低谷体验。

“好事不出门,坏事传千里。”低谷体验的坏感觉,总是比峰值体验的好感觉传播得更快更远。

于是,品牌的负面效应开始产生……社会化的刻板印象也由此形成。周而复始,一个出发之始,良善的口碑品牌便慢慢变成了糟糕的“传销”印象了。

这个社交电商业态的因果循环,真是一代一代,“报应”不爽。

2
如何解决“群体性免疫”这个问题?也就是说如何解决品牌口碑在被广泛熟悉之后,还能被更多形成刻板印象的受众与潜在消费者接受的问题。

既然是“病毒营销”,当然要向聪明的病毒学习。看看新冠,从最初的大规模传播形成群体免疫时,它选择了进化论中最重要的行为之一——变异。

于是,便有了阿尔法、德尔塔、奥密克戎……

从广义地说,以安利为滥觞的多层次直销的市场倍增学,从最初的归零制、累积制,到双轨制、矩阵制……本身就形成了长达近大半个世纪的变异与进化。

到了1985年这里,美乐家的诞生让整个业态产生了一次基因突变,革命性的直“消”模式——消费者直购系统(Consumer Direct Marketing)横空出世。以至于通过短短的35年时间,它在美国从最初的不起眼,慢慢超越了玫琳凯、康宝莱、雅芳、安利,最终坐上了北美市场的王座。

而它,也意识到自己的商业模式与原有的多层次直销渐行渐远,退出了直销协会,退出了行业评比,俨然把自己视为了全新的新零售物种——订阅制。而中国市场,假设安利没有了中国市场,恐怕它的全球营业额第一的头把交椅也难保了。

然而安利是值得敬佩的,它如63岁的“老人”今天依然焕发年轻态的市场光彩,一个很重要的原因就是——不断进化,迎合并引导市场。

不知不觉的,你已经看不到安利这个品牌在市场早年的囤货、伤人烂口碑,甚至除了我们用“安利”二字替代“分享”作为网络用词之外,不细心的消费者甚至都已经很难看到它出现在生活之中。

安利去了哪里?其实,它已经进化到了引领中国大地上“社交电商”这一新概念的地步。它所推行的战略,似乎是正在用自己的市场营销影响力,占领“社交电商”这一业态术语,有一天变成它的专用代名词的地步。

历史上它已经成功这样干过好几次:安利=传销,安利=直销,安利=合法的店铺+推销员,……如今,它快要干成“安利=社交电商”了。

这一切,究其根本底层逻辑,就是将自己的形成与模式,不断进行——变异,避免既往的消极口碑与已经形成的消费者的群体免疫。

3

美乐家何去何从?美乐家在中国大陆真的已经群体免疫了吗?

答案同样是——进化与变异。

我们大量的市场还停留在过往的经典的运作模式中。我把它称之为经典的、传统的、或者说古典主义的市场运作系统。

如今你看到安利早已经抛弃了直销时代的成功八步,美乐家是否应该抛弃经典的成功七步?或其他经典教育?但凡保守的力量都是强大的,作为当年中国大陆成功七步的集大成者,试图提出进化与变异思想时,遭到的是最大的保守力量的反对。而我,一直是一个离经叛道者。

变革者通常容易抛头颅洒热血,不要认为没有血与火的经济战争不会。它只过体现在别处罢了。其实北美市场从来没有成功七步,也没有什么不可描述的传世经典。

北美市场,在经过短暂2、3年徘徊后重新整装出发,获得了新一波的高增长。如果从进化论的角度来看,北美市场就是一次渐进的变异。没有进化,就只会熵增,最终的结果就是死寂。

生命最重要的就在于不断迭代。

美乐家公司行政方面,在Danny带领下的中国市场的本土化过程,已经迭代变化得无比“新零售”了:
微信小程序入会、易购、一键恢复会员……不一而足。

然而市场并没有跟上这个迭代。

市场还沉溺于过去的辉煌并叫嚣要用一套永恒不变的打法打遍天下无敌手的时候,我只能苦笑……风口下飞起来的猪,永远不知道翅膀是什么样子。

难道疫情下的长半衰效应渐次显现,还不够明显么?

激情固然是好事,但长矛大刀冷兵器一样的激情,在枪与炮的弹火中只是一拔又一拔的自杀式冲锋。

直购?环保超市?成功七步?轻创业?消费商?……几乎每一个概念都是与传直销、微商无法区隔的模糊概念。

毫无逻辑的疯狂喊目标,刷屏晒收入……几乎每一个行为都是多年来所有传销一样的鸡血式、心灵脓汤式的低水平重复打法。

是时候反思这一波又一波狂放的自杀式冲锋了。

从优秀到卓越,从来都是难的。因为优秀是卓越最大的敌人。

美乐家的城池一直很坚固。这得益于它35年来独有的模式所建立高高的城墙、所挖的深深的护城河。

城墙,是它35年强大的核心产品与研发能力。

护城河,则是它35年前首创的低定单价与刚需消费机制创造的极致性价比与回购率。

二者结合,进化到今天,我们也许有更好的名词来注解它,那就是订阅制。结合消费者的KOC(意见领袖)分享推广,或者更确切地说应该是订阅制创客模式。

订阅制有很多,但订阅制拥有创客的却只有美乐家是唯一。

在直销、微商已经消失的今天,在“社交电商”已经被安利代名的今天,美乐家理当成为订阅制的佼佼者,订阅制创客的惟一代言人。

你说呢?

路漫漫其修远兮!推荐越来越难的症结找到,剩下的是找到解决问题的人。

【08旧文】中国直销行业当前形势分析(4)

四、谁将会是下一波的高增长企业?

回首直销立法与颁法,所带来的混乱,已经四年。这四年里,我们再没有看到任何一个如同前三波的高增长企业的出现。难道是百家争鸣的时代已经开始,只可能出现春秋五霸与战国七雄的局面,而再难以有真正的王朝性的企业产生?
对此,笔者并不这样认为。原因是,在中国这块土地上,市场潜力还在太大太大。而真正意义上的争霸战,还尚未拉开。这四年,充其量不过中一场农民起义的混乱罢了。从政治与经济基础环境来看,中国的政治威权体制与经济政策宏观调控的导向决定了,直销市场更可能出现的是长尾效应的产生。
即是说,直销法的高控制性决定了只可能有少数的直销企业,借政策优势和自身实力的拼杀,可以取得在中国的最大获益和巨无霸地位。而这,则需要相当充分的一系列自身与外围条件满足才可以做到。至于其他企业,不过则是那个长长的尾巴。
如果长尾理论在中国直销市场上表现出来,我想那个“头”,即是大多数心态正统、眼光长线的直销商,会聚集在直销巨头门下,而对于那部分心态与眼光较为短线的直销商、直销跳蚤们,则会聚集于大量短线炒作与中小直销企业的“尾”了。
那么,我此文所要提到的“长尾理论”模型中的这个“头”,应该是更能代表下一波直销发展的高增长趋势。而当前,这个混乱了4年直销业,心态迷茫、寻找自我救赎的人们,其可能更感兴趣的,就应该是这个长尾的“头”,而不是“尾”了。
除了安利、完美们的营业额进入高增长后的缓冲状态与泡沫衰减外,谁?究竟会成为下一波的霸主?
主观上,四年大混乱,直销人的心态已经走到了低落的谷底,无论是异地操作的抑或是各个山头的山大王,都已经心态疲惫,期待着一个寻找一个强有力的新实力平台的回归。
客观上,2008年全球金融危机、货币贬值、股灾等经济衰退与不景气现象,天降大灾与社会动荡因素的影响,都使得社会大众危机感大盛,期待新的创业与兼职等机会的诞生。正派的直销,无疑将会成为这些危机下,于奥运结束后的一个新亮点。另一方面,奥运筹备与开展期间,政府没有时间拿出精力来收拾和整肃这个混乱的直销市场,但奥运之后,政府必然将腾出手来,一只手鼓励和推动正派拿牌企业的规范运作与成长,另一只手则会持续针对地下企业与异地操作等老鼠会行为,采取更为严厉的打击和清理手段。
综上所述,2008年这个转换年头之后,未来1-3年之内,必然会有行业心态的复苏,正派直销企业的爆炸式高增长。 当然,究竟什么样的直销企业,需要具备什么样的条件,才能满足这种高增长呢?

笔者认为大概需要以下决定因素:

一、背景资质:这方面需要它至少需要有四个方面:1.绝对合法的企业资质――拿牌企业;2.中国特色的实力背景,即有良好的政府、媒体公关系统;3.公司有实力和影呼力来制造市场上的大规模运作条件;4.公司、产品、制度三个核心要素上,在概念上的要有强有力的新鲜感,足以吸引业界人士。
二、行政管理:市场要启动良好离不开公司稳健的行政团队,因此,具备国际化的职业经理人管理团队以及中国国情经验丰富的本土化职业经理团队显得尤为重要。
三、产品概念:一方面需要具备典型的人无我有、人有我特的产品理念,即独特性与垄断性,另一方面产品线需要品类齐全和很高的重复消费率、回头率。
四、切入时机:行业中目前大多数人都已经觉醒到,要有高增长势头的发展,实际上已经排除了安利、完美等曾经辉煌的企业和其他已经运作多年但并不曾有业绩高走之势的企业。也因此,未来1-3年能够全面高增长的企业基本可以归结为:全新概念的稳健型企业,实力和稳健度都极高的外商企业,在中国刚刚起动并在运作进入正轨,客观上具备整合疲软概念公司队伍的平台优势,面临较少的同等条件的竞争者。
这样的企业会是谁?笔者基本可以预测为美乐家、嘉康利这两大美商公司。

跋——(2014重新整理追记)

不知不觉中,从08年到14年,六年如白驹过隙!当年天问对于未来3年的高增长公司也并未预言准确。实际上,我们看到了一个更加冗长、沉迷、浮燥、炒作的六年。这个中的原因,当然也源于天问对于国家直销政策的监管变数未能有一个良好的预估。
值得称快的是,商务部的贿赂门,最终既撂倒了当年制定这个残废直销法规的主管官员,也让雅芳这个行业公敌江河日下全球败绩!惟一遗恨的是,这个残废的直销依然在运转,并形成了强大的行业潜规则……
正是直销法规带来的主管部门『选择性执法』甚至是『敛财式执法』《中国直销》杂志主编金云义语),给整个直销带来了很多无法预估甚至跌破眼镜的变态空间。
富有争议的月朗,靠着收购美商富迪的牌照,摇身一变成了合法的企业;还有偷渡而不得入国门的美商优莎纳,也借着葆婴的壳变成拿牌企业。当然,还有广东康力,它俨然成了『商务二部』,借由大型国有军企的红色背景,搞起了牌照租赁——大肆收编各种非法直传销的杂牌军,最终又不了了之。中脉哈药隆力奇罗麦,…那些原来在传统保健品产业的企业们,纷纷通过关系拿到了直销牌照,此起彼伏!而曾经苦逼没有牌照的『原创型直销企业』三生绿之韵,甚至美罗…先先后后都通过关系拿到了牌照,掀起和加入了制度炒作大战!——它们干的究竟是不是直销,还是挂着羊头的别的什么?很难说也很难真正界定!只是谁用谁知道,留待历史来证明与评说罢!
然而,如果你是站在岸上,站在直销行业外来观察直销业,你就可以这六年来直销业其实越来越处于社会边缘化、越来越被主流人群所厌倦和抛弃!其价值体系,也早已崩溃!
至少,我在这六年间,我看到了传统级差式制度的安利、完美、玫琳凯、无限极等外资的持续高增长;我更看到了恶魔化身于内资直销企业的双轨制甚至电脑公排与资本运作概念大肆圈钱的市场激荡!以至于这六年间,我不得不得出一个经典的『拿牌的老鼠会时代』的宏观政策与大环境的概念。
六年间,我也重新挥笔如刀、如剑、如投枪,写出了《反直销黄金三部曲》这样对于整个直销反思产生深远意义的文章!
值得庆幸的是,在对于直销业彻底失望与反思的同时,天问也在08年下半年有幸真正发现了我预言的直『消』模式的企业——美乐家,它正真正的彻底解决了我15年来在直销业里没有解决的问题:我能吗?我的朋友能吗?——风险性问题;我成吗?我的朋友能成吗?——成功率问题。
这是一套系统的、完整的、符合这时代趋势的解决方案!
美乐家的消费者直购模式,虽然源自于直销相近的理念,却完全跳脱了业绩导向、销售导向,勾引人性的贪婪的烂泥潭!也是在这六年里,天问选择了经由它所提供的载体,完成了个人观点从理念到实践,并求证和见证了成功的过程。
历史车轮还在前进,社会主流环境也在沧桑巨变,谁会是这个时势大潮中的真正英雄?谁又会青史留名,谁又会遗臭万年?
面对我曾经预言的价值体系已经崩溃的直销,我们不得不说它还将在一定历史时期内长期存在,然而当新的商业模式与营销革命到来的时候,我们又不得不充满人文关怀地对每一个希望改变自己人生的小小个体,借马云的话忠告:今天很残酷,明天更残酷,后天很美好,但是绝大部分人是死在明天晚上,只有那些真正的英雄才能见到后天的太阳。
归根结底,直销不过弹丸,在自我YY的同时作沧海一声笑罢了!
且行且珍惜!
 
天问2014年6月6日于广州粤海喜来登酒店

【08旧文】中国直销行业当前形势分析(3)

三、历史各时期直销商心态关键字及当前混乱之根源

如前文所述,三个高增长的王朝,对应了三个时代,其实你会发现,大乱之时,必是魔鬼公司高增长,而大治之时自然落脚到正道公司的高增长。同样的,直销人生在不同的时候,每朝每代都面临着不同的个人心态与群体心态,与王朝的起伏衰竭相呼应。正是这样一些关键字组成的混乱直销史,也佐证着历史规律的轮回。
我们现在来尝试着分析这几个时期。

前传销时期(1998.4.21前)--心态上升

政治环境开始从八十年代的思潮大盛开始走向九十年代初的保守过渡时期。人们在意识形态泛滥的方向面临挫折后,开始把精力转向了经济动物的特性。创业,兼职、外出打工开始兴起,而与之相关的新生事物之直传销业,开始在沿海登陆。加上图书出版界,在思想领域市场受到压制下,也开始转向经济领域去大唱赞歌,传销书籍可谓是畅行天下了。
这是一个真正意义上的传销年代,从90年行业的诞生至98年的全民传销时代。我们基本上可以把人们对一个新生事物的认识、拒绝、认可的过程,其心态关键字归结为:新鲜、好奇、浮燥、疯狂8个字。

转型前期(1998.4.21-2001.12WTO前)--心态下降

传销的泛滥成灾,及其经济组织性的危害,引发了中共高层的严重不安。没经验,管不好也管不了的情形下,快刀斩乱麻式的一切刀作风变再次占据当权者的上风。
1998.4.21是直传销老人们心痛的历史,所谓的千秋大业毁于一旦。在这个被称为直销的黑暗时代里,大量梦想被放大的直销人,希望像肥皂泡般地破灭,禁止传销带来彻底的低迷与失望,纷纷自决于江湖。从此不再提旧时王朝伤心事。于心态上,我们可以将主流定义为以下关键字:失望、放弃、低谷、徘徊8个字。
尽管,此一时期有着如前所述的“华良&得利王朝”的兴盛,但终是魔长道消,成不得整个直销行业的主流心态。另一个角度讲,大凡业界整体的正面心态低迷之势时,必是负面心态--投机、短视等心态上升之时,这也为“华良&得利王朝”客观上造就了生存的心态条件。

转型后期(2001.12-20004.9厦门会议前)--心态上升

这个时期并非绝对地匹配着转型后期历史阶段,它更多的与中国政府公开声称立法进程有着很大的关系。其标志,是2004年厦门经贸洽谈会的22家企业的直销立法座谈会。
我们的可以看到,这一时期是安利、完美王朝的强盛时期,而这个阶段,转型企业开始走出一成熟的运作套路--店铺+雇佣推销员模式,并开始得到社会各届的广泛认可。整个直销业曙光再现,从事安利、完美的人遍布天下,加上大量规范的市场追随者如新、康宝莱、新时代、南方李锦记等的相互辉映。
魔道之心开始处于劣性,而正派公司所带来的是整个行业心态回升,可用关键字表述为:回归、坚持、执着、复苏、信心十个字。

立法前后(2004.9-今/时2008)--心态下降及当前混乱之根源

直销立法了,却天下大乱了。这是个很反常但又很正常的现象。要说清楚这个心态下降,还得多费点神,姑分为1.2.3节来分解。

1

话说安利、完美王朝的鼎盛,十家转型企业的复苏,如新、康宝莱加入争霸,我们似乎越来越看到一个光明的未来。
入世承诺的临近,2003年9月,十家转型企业就已经在厦门经贸洽谈会中,低调召开了以关注直销立法小组名义的相关主题会议。如果不是某直销企业高管对媒体记者的批露,这个会议业界几乎是完全不知道的。
有第一次,第二轮很自然开始成为业界关注的一个大重点。2004年9月,直销主题会议几乎成为当年厦门经贸洽谈会上一个最热门话题。而事实上,当年的这个会议,也成为直销立法的一个重要里程碑,确切地说是一个破坏性的进程碑。
无数的直销企业争相往里扎,期待成为会议上一员,遂有了当年厦门会议中参会究竟是22家,亦或是23家之争(炒作偷渡企业安旗,声称自己也是应邀之列)。
这次标志性的会议,代表着中国直销立法的承诺与进程,却直接引发了外商与假洋鬼子的海外企业,如安旗、立新世纪、雷克瑟丝、茵莱、EFT、盛仕铭……的大规模偷渡与炒作。而海外名企优莎纳、美乐家、福莱、……等,也先后经由经销商擅自作主,大肆偷渡作为!目的都只有一个,中国的市场太大,一旦门户大开,乃是一个绝好的市场先机!
与之同时,除原创型直销企业(我定义的概念,指企业从诞生之日起即是直销模式运作)新时代、大连美罗、宁波三生、……继续挣扎外,内地本土的企业也不再闲着,天年、步长、珍奥、海王、昂立、万基、太阳神、健康元、中脉……各大保健大鳄、会议营销高手,皆开始声称并准备开辟直销市场。
一时江湖门派林立,血雨腥风,新的一场直销浩劫开始了……

2

诸侯争霸,群雄并起并不可怕,可怕的是中共的直销立法进程,总是在或明或暗并不十分透明的进行。不光社会大众不知其立法调研的过程,但直销企业也是天天派出专人呆在天朝,揣测圣意。于是,中国最有戏剧线的一幕开始上演。这台戏的主角,是雅芳和安利。一个单层次直销的老牌公司,和一个多层次直销的龙头老大。
安利,一直作为直销的龙头老大,也是事实上“中国直销立法的风向标”(笔者评语)而存在的。但是,2004年9月的厦门会议,却传出了直销立法的基本框架--中国的直销必须是单层次,直销商的奖金拔出率必须低于30%。这个消息的传出,无疑于是对直销行业满怀期待的所有直销企业和直销商的当头一棒。谁不知道,单层次直销与30%两个铁槛,等于说彻底抹杀了直销行业的根本特性。一时间,人们开始根本上怀疑我党制定直销法与开放直销业的诚意。
我们不得不征询,是谁促成了直销法居然有这样的条款产生?
答案果然很容易找到。这一切,都是作为单层次直销代表的雅芳从中斡旋的结果。动机很简单,雅芳早已眼馋于安利170亿的年营业额,意图于迎合中共限制发展直销的需求,在中国直销立法进程中通过谏言影响正在制订的直销法,以符合自己公司特性的游戏规则为核心,从而制衡业界其他竞争对手的发展。
诚如安利某刀斧手在博客上发言的,雅芳此举,等于是挥刀自宫。不但宫了自己,还妄图宫掉别人。
原因是,雅芳在历史上虽然单层次直销,但在海外事实上因为竞争上一直难与多层次直销抗衡,其全球战略中也正在向多层次方向转型。偏就是它,在中国这个潜大巨大的市场,却作出截然相反的胯下一刀之举。此招数,不可谓不下三滥,也不可谓不毒。
这一刀,雅芳成了中国直销业的业界公敌!这一刀,影响了今日中国政府推出的直销管理办法,至今仍是限定30%的拔出比例,并且禁止多层次计酬(法规里提的是团队计酬概念,原理一样)。这一刀,再次使直销法变成一个中国特色法律,形成一个新的潜规则:所有直销企业宣称只拔出30%,而真实的事实是所有直销企业,都以其他名义变相再拔出更高比例。于是乎,团队计酬与否,30%与否,再次成为政府官员执法力度中最大的弹性标准。
套用某省级工商局公平交易局的局长酒桌上的原话:“拿没拿牌不重要,是不是直销、传销,全我说了算。我说是你,你就是,不是也是;我说你不是,你就不是,是也不是。”
直销法的纠结与跨国公司利益的争夺,成了影响直销行业心态的一个重要的因素。

3

直销法最终于2005年11月1日正式公布,并于12月1日开始实施,而同时也宣布了将于次年11月31日,正式终止十家转型企业的资格。从直销立法进程开始,到直销立法正式颁布、实施,原来的十大转型企业,内地传统转型直销企业,内地原创型直销企业,皆纷纷解囊北上设立驻京办。一场直销牌照的争夺大战悄然地拉开序幕!
2005年-2006年,是政府先后发放直销牌照的两年。一方向,直销牌照成为相关部门新的权力寻租的最大靓点,一另方面,业界掮客成为了两年时间内最为引人夺目炽手可热的人物。真是整一个乱字了得。
再看看,雅芳,这个众矢之的企业,因其自宫之举甚得天朝欢心,成为第一家获得直销牌照的企业。至于在国内如火如荼的盛世王朝的安利、完美们,则变成了悬案。这个悬案,一直拖了一年,直到2006年12月1日,才正式获得直销牌照。被业界称为“压线拿牌”!
这一拖,拖出了安利、完美等在国内占主流地位的直销人群们的心态直线下降。作为向来自视为正统的规范企业的安利、完美们,哪里受过这档事窝囊?而与之伴随的是国内风起云涌的大量新开盘公司,高呼新机会、短期致富。这一年的时间,多少安利、完美们,从此走向了偷渡、炒作、异地、短线的地下企业,不得而知!
有一个事实是,从2004年至今,直销法是立了,直销行业却更乱了。各大知名直销企业,拿牌不拿牌的,营业额都垮塌得厉害!安利从170亿的高峰,掉到了130亿,净缩水40亿。
从此以后,整个行业开始对直销业的正本清源、规范发展的价值观,再次失去了信仰。
2001年WTO以来的乐观主义向往,于次变成低落。而需要看到的是,历史的规律依然奏效。当人们心态再次下降时,魔鬼的价值观就开始腾升!
一时间,炒作公司越来越短线、横行,偷渡企业越来越猖厥,加上2007年金融市场的变态性增长,直销甚至开始利用其原理沾染上了直接进传销行融资的行为。瑞士基金、资本运作等名义的纯金钱游戏,此起彼伏。表面看来安利、完美们的经销商放弃多年正直的价值观去从事这些歪门邪道匪夷所思,却因为这样的大环境,也就显得再正常不过了。
这期间,规范公司推出了大量稳定市场的宣传和策略,虽然还算稳健,其增长势头却都显得苍白无力。原因很简单,作为直销商的主体,已经彻底崩溃了。而处于地下运作的企业,也因大环境的政策紧缩,没有多少建树。惟一可称得上炒作得当,但前途未卜的企业,也就只有月朗这样一家公司了。作为高调炒作了两年的家灰色企业,已经被五六家省级工商局定性会非法传销的双轨制企业,未来究竟如何?业界众说纷纭。但依笔者来据历史规律,我党执政风格来看,只怕是难有善终!只是还没到秋后算账的那一天罢了。
历史还在滚滚向前,当前这个时期,归结起来,算是个魔道之争的时期。2005年至今2008年,业界的心态也就基本可以定义为以下十个字了:浮燥、迷茫、焦燥、失望、投机
那么,如果按照历史规律的演进,这个被诸多行业和领域都列为转换年的2008年,其后会向哪个方向发展呢?

我想,这是所有业界的朋友所关注的。

【08旧文】中国直销行业当前形势分析(1~2)

【天问按】这个系列文章,原本有四个章节,是我08年远离直销业时,盘点整个中国直销业18年历史所写的封笔之作。没想到的是,时过境迁,原来最早发于闾丘露薇的一五一十部落的文章,因为该网站的关闭,网上已经不太容易寻找到完整的全貌。这里特地将它重新整理修订一下发出来。也算是一种纪念。

当我沉默着的时候,我觉得充实;我将开口,同时感到空虚。

……生命的泥委弃在地面上,不生乔木,只生野草,这是我的罪过。野草,根本不深,花叶不美,然而吸取露,吸取水,吸取陈死人的血和肉,各各夺取它的生存。当生存时,还是将遭践踏,将遭删刈,直至于死亡而朽腐。

……地火在地下运行,奔突;熔岩一旦喷出,将烧尽一切野草,以及乔木,于是并且无可朽腐。

……我希望这野草的朽腐,火速到来。要不然,我先就未曾生存,这实在比死亡与朽腐更其不幸。

——鲁迅《野草·题词》

直销业,2008这样一个多事之秋的年头,倒是显得相对平静。这个平静,似乎大有点能量埋于地下,潜滋暗长的样子。这个能量,势必一如那地火的力量,必将于未来,喷薄于地面,再成燎原之势。

十八年的,直销的狗年月,于每一个直销人那衰老亦或是未老先衰的心,亦必有着别样的回顾的意味。让我们来看看,这直销历史的甚嚣烟尘……

一、中国直销历史的几个阶段性回顾

2002年时,曾写过一篇名燥一时的《中国直销业 风雨十二年》收录于当年的畅销书《直销为王》中。当年定义下的几个时代划分的概念,一直也被业界认可并引用着。时隔6年,研究直销的人多了,书写直销历史的人也有了。然而对于这些历史阶段的划分,其实已经伴随着直销历史的演进,回头看得更为清晰和理智。历史的规律演进需要历史本身说话,理论上的妄言与强加,以致炒作,都必然沦为谬误。同样,对于历史进行进行动态的、相对理性与科学的总结,也是我辈的一种责任与义务。而是以,笔者再次根据时至今日的情形,重新进行一次梳理。

书归正传。

1990年3月22日,美国雅芳公司作为中国第一家官方认可的直(传)销公司正式登陆广州,由此揭开了传销在内地发展的序幕。

1997年1月10日,国务院正式颁布《传销管理办法》,正式认可传销行业在中国的合法地位。

1998年4月21日,国务院正颁令,通知禁止任何形式的传销活动。

从此,4月21日成为直销人心中一个重要的分界线,甚至在圈内,还有几分神圣的意思。在这个线之前认识直(传)销的,业已成为今日之直销业的活化石与“老人”。而此前的这一段历史,无论多么辉煌过、混乱过、复杂过,我们都可以紧缩为一个概念--“前直销时代”,或曰“混乱的传销时代”。此为一。

“4·21”之后,政府迫于对外商当年的投资承诺,开了一道中国特色的口子,十家外商投资企业,给予一个转型经营的政策。而安利,则于当年7月,创造性的推出了一套模式--“店铺经营+雇佣推销员”的经营模式。

至2006年11月31日转型外商投资直销企业资格终止,中国从此拉开了长达8年的“转型直销经营时代”。而这个年代,也绝不是简单的8年。从政策标志性来看,大体则可以分为“前转型直销时期”,和“后转型直销时期”。

何以如此划分?标志只有一个,中国在2001年11月10日被批准加入世贸组织(因为按WTO规定,成员被批准加入后30天才成为正式成员,所以真正加入时间是2001年12月10日)。经过长达15年的努力谈成进入WTO,其中有必须承诺的开放无店铺业的条件。所以转型前后期的历史划分,“前转型直销时期”应该是1998年4月21日-2001年12月10日,而“后转型直销时期”,则应该是2001年12月10日-2006年11月31日了。

2006年11月31日以后,即2006年12月1日起至今,中国才开始真正意义上的走有了有法可依的“规范直销时代”或曰“直销法时代”。

二、直销史上的几个王朝--高增长公司回顾

中国几千封建社会的历史规律与社会意识,其实同样会沉淀和折射在直销行业里。宏观政策的“一抓就死,一放就乱”,决定了这个行业,总是走着奇怪的螺旋氏上升的历史规律路线。

稍稍整理这一部混乱的直销史,你就会发现,行业形势总是围绕着这些关键字:混乱、整肃、兴盛、统一、割据、大乱、统一、大治、衰弱、中兴、霸主、回归、再乱……

而在这个大乱中,亦或有乱世枭雄,霸业一方,却未能成王者气候,亦或在这个大治,王者之剑铸,就近乎于一统江山,垄断大半个中国。总结下来,大抵应该已经有三大波的高增长直销公司在中国史上各领风骚。

第一波:前直销时代(传销的混乱时代)--“摇摆机”王朝

1998年4.21之前,中国的直传销,最引人注目的不是97年创下15亿(初稿误将全球70亿美金误作国内营业额,特此更正!)营业额的安利,而“田”字辈的摇摆机阵营的公司。从台湾兴田国际进入中国,广东福田领取传销牌照,武汉新田的混乱局面……再后来,到衍生仿冒与抄袭的龙发国泰长寿机等。这一波的“摇摆机”公司,虽然不能锁定于某一家企业上,但事实上全是兴田国际的近亲与门徒,所以暂时定义成一个“摇摆机”王朝。

对于它当年的营业额究竟多少?没人能估计到。从安利当年只卖“六大瓶”洗洁精就卖出15亿15亿(初稿误将全球70亿美金误作国内营业额,特此更正!)人民币营业额对比来看,动辄二三千、三四千乃至四五千块一台的“摇摆机”,其数目应该是至少数百个亿了。

原因是,当年摇摆机还创造性地发明了异地邀约的进行运作,最恶劣时,引发了各地广大的农民伯伯卖掉大牯牛、大肥猪去异地买一台摇摆机。北海、星沙、合肥等地,据闻曾经聚集过数十万职业传销人。真可谓是全民传销的疯狂时代。

另一个指标是,当年的部分业界元老自我吹嘘,其网络伞下个人资产过亿的经销商也是数十人。一人奖金能过亿,可见当年这一王朝的年营业额绝对乃是天文数字了。今天,在中国市场依然活跃着的一大批直销操盘手与领袖中,这些人的名字依然赫然在目。如成为地产企业家的王君至今旗下还有着直销企业;而名噪一时的画家出身的陈东方则活跃在职业经理人的名份上,还有音乐家的文章则从事着操盘手的工作,还有陈荣波、姚建华、……

将“摇摆机”列为第一波与第一王朝,实至名归!

第二波:转型直销前期(禁止传销后低迷期)--“华良&得利”王朝

“摇摆机”的疯狂,直接被中共4.21一刀切掉。当年李岚清副总理出面讲话的场景,至今仍存于诸多人耳目之间回响。

直销的黑暗时代正式来临。
上帝关上一扇门的时候,总会打开另一扇窗。这一扇窗,就是98年7月成功转型为“店铺+雇佣推销员方式”的安利。这是一个划时代的创举,全球直销都归结于的无店铺业涵盖下历史,在中国划上何止符的一刹那,从此变成了有店铺的直(传)销。安利,从本质上依然保留了一个直销的合理内核--市场倍增学,也成了延续这一行业正统血脉的孤儿。
然而,上帝关门开窗的同时,魔鬼同样不会闲着。它创造了一个近似乌托邦的精神家园,一套独特的理论哲学--消费联盟。
消费联盟是一个完美的概念,他肇始于台湾华良集团董事长郑永森的创造,这比作为上帝之子的安利,其钻石比尔·奎恩博著书写作《生产消费者力量》,足足早了好几年。究其两者本质,不过都是直销商既作为经营者,又作消费者的双重身份原理的换个翻新说法。
正是这样一个新瓶装旧酒的翻新概念,加上98年前摇摆机成熟的异地邀约模式,一个伟大的魔鬼企业诞生在中国--华良集团(后改为得利消费联盟)。概念的新鲜,成熟的模式,加上郑先生独特的台商深蓝爱国台胞背景作为政治保护伞,在黑暗时代的直销人们,对上帝的那扇窗户深抱怀疑的时候,疯狂地投入了魔鬼摩下。
1998年-2000年期间,华良以“消费联盟+异地邀约”模式,在长沙、重庆等地,先生建立数十万人乃至可能超过百万人的队伍。而随之诞生的一批江湖豪杰,则是黑暗时代的黑骑士,身价高者多达上亿,稍差者也是上千万的人物。这一批人,至今仍然活跃在中国的直销舞台上。作企业的,陈立波,今清华紫光古汉老总,周洲,法莱雅董事长;作经销商领袖的,有熊和平、傅以平、蒋亚捷、……。可以推断的是,当年华良-得利的营业额,又岂能不上百亿?
处于地下运作的“华良&得利”王朝的同期,直销史上还有一家敢于地面上运作的企业。这个企业同样来自台湾--申齐。
如果说华良带来是“消费联盟”的新直销概念与指导哲学的兴盛,那么申奇则是中国直销史上一家绝无仅有的中西文化合壁得最好的直销企业。其创办人吴齐南为传奇式人物,曾经是贵为安利贝瑞德(642)系统的钻石级经销商。以笔者的总结而言,他作出三个最为重要的贡献:一、成功的经销商领袖背景与自创申齐的企业管理实践相结合,使申齐成为了企业文化与经销商系统文化合二为一;二、其源于西方正统的直销商系统文化(术的层面的100%复制理念与操作技巧)与东方传统文化(道的层面的领导力与做人艺术)的完美结合的典范;三、将安利当年的太阳线系统文化成功地转换为双轨制系统文化。

98年-01年间,正是这样两家有着全新概念的企业,如同两盏发着奇怪光明的灯,亦正亦邪中,照耀着直销黑暗时代中的一大群直销业的人在黑暗中前行。 黑夜中的灯,是经不起龙行天下,我党布施的强风骤雨的。华良、申奇,皆先后于99-2000年前后被全面打击,郑永森先生富可敌国盆满钵满回到台湾,而后去贝劳买下岛屿过神仙生活,至今仍是公安部通辑对象;吴齐南,则天妒英才,郁郁而终…… 华良亡,乃是魔鬼之亡;申齐亡,乃是英雄之亡;一个令人称快,一个却令人扼腕。然而,他们的兴盛,却使得一个在政治学在才昌盛的原理在直销领域中毕露出来:有一套完整而系统的理论哲学结合强有力的实践推行者,可以打造出一个强大到震撼国民的经济王朝。

第三波:转型直销后期(转型企业成长期)--“安利 & 完美”王朝

华良与申齐的覆灭后,黑暗中的直销渐近晨曦。2001年,中共经过长达十五年谈判,终于在11月时谈妥WTO进入条件,作为直销为核心的无店铺销售业,被记入了浓重的一笔。

其实后来我们才知道,安利老板是美国商会主席,而马上将于9月开业的嘉康利中国老板何立强是美中关系协会主席。这些直销企业的老板,为中国进入WTO,可谓是不遗余力的作了莫大的推动。这是后话。

WTO的信息,尤如雄鸡晓唱,让很多直销人重新苏醒了。然而,彼此时彼刻,依然不是一个可以提及直销、传销字眼的时代。于是,上帝开的那个窗户,但成了晨光曦微的独特美景了。

安利98年转型成功,历经二三年的挣扎,开始让主流社会和直销界,认识到有店铺的直销方式,是政府认可的。而2000年也推出转型方案的完美,则也开始让业界燥动不安起来。与之同时,如新作为另一个海外巨头,也高调进入中国市场,声称自己走店铺直销的模式。一时间,三巨头在中国唱响三重奏……

安利率先发威,——

1997年营业额达15亿元人民币

1998年3.2亿元(1998年4月,国家禁止一切传销活动,当年7月安利(中国)经国务院批准转型恢复营业)

1999年6.4亿元

2001年45亿元

2002年60亿元(开始暴增)

2003年100亿元(安利(中国)营业额首次超过美国和日本,占安利全球营业总额的1/4,成为安利全球第一大市场。)

2004年170亿元

……

当安利对外称自己年营业额170亿的时候,完美不甘落后,对外虽低调称只有几十亿,但其高层曾流露出传言,其业绩分毫不低于安利之数据或者与之相当。安利却也另有消息流出其实际营业额在200亿以上。

这些传言有无证据,笔者要说:“无!”

 

但是,当年的完美一个个体户执照的专卖店,其月销售额在数百万,而中国有多少专卖店?你自己去想像。

 

而安利特郑州专卖店大抢劫案,仅柜台现金就是90多万,谁知道是半天还是一天的营业额?这样如同抢银行一样的大案,你也可以自己想像背后企业营收状态。

 

传言归传言,我们不必细究,因为在中国这个东西既敏感,又不好听。很多东西查无实据,却非空穴来风,只可意会。话说脏点叫只过意淫。

 

这期间,直销巨头如新进入中国,康宝莱重新开业,皆只有说是略有见树,另有新时代、南方李锦记等企业,皆属于追随着,相对于论及安利、完美而言本节之旨,不作细表。

 

安利完美的高增长,究其原因,根本上还是体现了一个重要的“政治经济学原理”:在中国做企业,必须懂政治,必须搞好政府公关。正所谓古训:顺我者昌,逆我者亡。也就是说,作为一个企业,你不仅要在中国完全合法运营,而且还要深谙很多潜规则,作到所谓的地道的本土化。

 

这方向,安利、完美无疑作得都很强大。据笔者所知,安利除其老板在WTO的国际事务中为中方出力不少外,其在中国公司在全国的政府公关和媒体公关系统(其内部称为外事机构),也近乎于是一个特务机构。从公司总部到各地分公司,各级外事工作人员,对于国内任何一级与直销相关的政府官员,媒体负责人及关注直销的媒体人,其性格、爱好、德行、史料,都有着高度追踪的健全档案。

 

再看看完美,虽没有安利那种美商的内外皆牛的套路,但其华人最懂华人的专长也发挥得淋漓尽致!作为华侨企业的老板的老古,可谓是中马关系之间炽手可热的人物。不光在大马是皇室的拿督勋爵,在中国,也是庙堂的常客。这方面,笔者的朋友曾亲自感受过其通过国安系统打招呼,对媒体进行负面报道的消息压制;而坊间传闻其曾拜庙堂上的老爷子为干爹,我想应该不是随意胡诌。正如其经销商说的,完美三架马车,老古是走高层路线的高手,老胡是市场上的高手,而老许,则是打点后院的高手。有这样的架构,完美想不牛都不行。

 

安利、完美王朝的鼎盛时代全面到来,可谓是魔消道长的一大表现,转型直销企业的高增长再次惊醒了中国的其他外商转型直销企业,以及国内各大医疗保健品巨头。

很自然,魔鬼也在再次酝酿着下一波的反扑力量和时机。

秋实:格斗教会我的5件事

1.搏击结合有氧和无氧,减脂效果极佳

2.拳击是绅士的运动!当把双拳修炼成凶器,内心自然平静

3.张文宏医生是对的,多吃肉禽奶等蛋白质,少吃碳水

4.男人的胸怀是委屈撑大的,努力做好人,就一定会被坏人攻击,这很正常。

5.勇气比技巧重要,热爱比装备重要,坚持比什么都重要

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